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Originally Posted by jeebus1083
The power of NewPace was on full display in last night's 6th race at Mountaineer... I did not bet... I'm still testing this out, and will lay low until comfortable... anyway, based on my handicapping, the horses in the array were as followed (with final odds):
Early Horse - 6 (32-1)
Early Horse - 4 (3/2)
Late Horse - 7 (9/2)
Late Horse - 1 (2-1)
The #6 at 0-for-34 lifetime, would be an automatic throwout using conventional, acceptable handicapping rules/logic. The connections were horrendous, further darkening the horse.
So the race... 2-3-4 did the early running, and who came late?
The 6... drawing clear at $66.80.
Order of finish...
6-4-7-1
The EXACT order of my Early-Early/Late-Late array!
$2 Ex - $163.80
$2 Tri - $814.80
$2 Super - $1611.60
If one was brave enough to separate themselves from the chalks in the P3...
$2 P3 (6-2-1) - $432.00
Dave Schwartz can attest to this. I sent him the screenshots of my handicapping and the race results almost immediately following the race. Feel free to post my screenshots.
When you get results like these (even if it doesn't happen regularly), you have to pay attention.
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This is great but, if I were running the NewPace strat and came up with those contenders, I'd be thinking the race was a pass.. because in the exploitation (betting) phase, we have two horses under 7/2 and no real value in the race. The only way you are making money in this race is if you catch the miracle outcome.
I'm not trying to rain on the parade but, I think that if we are using this method correctly, we are passing on races that bear contenders of such prices.
While I'm commenting on NewPace, I'd like to add that I have been thinking of a valid way to use the method in horizontal wagers.
If we agree that the hit rate of contenders is 80%. Then a Daily Double wager would be two independent events of 80%.... or .8^2 = 0.64
So we should expect to hit the DD 64% of the time when using our contenders. However, 4x4 or 4x5 etc can be a large ticket and we need to make sure that on the wagers we hit, we are getting sufficient value.
I'm tooling around with the idea that by breaking down the odds into percentage and only using a cumulative percentage less than 64% in each race, we stay under the threshold that would strip our value.
Still tinkering with this but, a major step when adding the percentages together is to not use more than one horse that is 7/2 or lower. Say you have a 2/1 and a 3/1, only use one of these. It keeps your percentage down and allows you to use the higher priced horses. Or better yet, skip races with more that one contender sitting at 7/2 or lower.
Same for pick threes. .8^3 = 0.512
Looks great, right? Hitting pick threes at 51%! That's better than a coin flip. However, we need to trim ticket size or else we are treading water or worse. 4x4x4=64. We have to justify making p3 tickets that large, thats why I suggest using the percentage method to stay within reason.
Pick fours? .8^4 = 0.4096 Roughly 41% hit rate.
Pick six weighs in at .8^6 = 0.262144 or 26%.
Thats cashing 1 of 4 tickets! But, think of how expensive these tickets would be.. we need to go smaller by only using 26% of the odds in each race.
Del Mar's website have a great tool for converting odds into percentage, it is called the "Morning Line Tool". It can be found here..
http://www.dmtc.com/handicapping/tools/mltool.php
Another issue is that with NewPace we are betting single races and we know what odds we are getting. In these multirace wagers we have to go by M/L or making our own lines. Personally, I will use the M/L to come up with the percentages but, if there are scratches it becomes useless. Twinspires offers Profitline. It differs from the M/L but, one good thing is that it changes along with scratches, so it can be used to derive percentages in the event of scratches.
Please comment.. I know it is raw but, I'm putting it out there.
