Quote:
Originally Posted by boys at tosconova
i love discussing the wood as none of these horses have run a lick in the derby in many years. despite how good they've looked. the wood curse is alive, and auto tossing them all has been the right move. obv previous results aren't indicative of future ones, but they've been as bad as the uae horses for what seems like a long time.
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Reasons for the weak Wood Memorial impact:
1) Number of starters
Here are the starters from the 5 main prep races since 2000:
Blue Grass - 65
Arkansas Derby - 49
Santa Anita Derby - 43
Wood Memorial - 37
Florida Derby - 31
2) Todd Pletcher
Todd Pletcher has won 4 of the last 7 Wood Memorials. Pletcher's Kentucky Derby record is something like 1 for 49. That doesn't count the numerous high profile candidates that were forced to miss the KY Derby due to injury or illness. You can pretty much throw out any of his Derby horses that make it to the race at least in the top spot.
3) Injuries to winners
In this century, there has been several Wood winners who went down with injuries prior to the KY Derby. Buddha, I Want Revenge, Eskendereya, and Toby's Corner. Not to suggest they would have won the Derby, but 2yo champs War Pass and Uncle Mo as well as El Kabeir were also knocked off just before the KY Derby.
4) Florida Derby date change
The rescheduling of the FL Derby has clearly impacted the Wood. In fact, this would been the main justification for downgrading the Wood to a Grade 2. Historically, most of the top Wood horses wintered in Florida and prepped there before a final tuneup for the KY Derby in the Wood. With the FL Derby positioned more closely to the big race, there is little reason for a trainer to ship to NY to run, other than to duck a top rival or try and earn points with a second tier or late blooming type.
That said, the Wood has had an interesting impact on the KY Derby this century. Between 2000-2003, it was responsible for 2 and nearly 3 KY exactas. Fusaichi Pegasus and Aptitude were 1-2 in 2000 and Funny Cide and Empire Maker were 1-2 in 2003. In 2001, Congaree was just tagged out of second place by Invisible Ink behind winner Monarchos.
More recently, since 2006 (11 Derbys), the Wood Memorial has produced the 4th place finisher 5 times (Jazil, Tale of Ekati, Normandy Invasion, Wicked Strong, Frosted). Superfecta players should take note.
