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Before this meet I was +4,157.85.
Now am +16,757.70 betting Kentucky Downs life time.
I made win bets in 23 races and 15 horses won. Not all bets paid well, but a win is better than a loss. The $3.60 and $5.40 winners when I bet two horses meant the other bets were on much higher odds horses forcing me to eat chalk.
On 9/6 I cancelled a win bet on and eventual $8.00 winner in the 4th race because if it won I would complete large pick 3.
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Now to how I improved my turf handicapping---
I ignore all dirt races, except for conditioning. If the last recent race was on dirt, look at it like a great work out.
I make all my own figures.
The first is Performance Class Rating from William L. Scott. It is a numerical class rating I find it much more reliable than earnings per start. It measures how the horse did in all turf races, if rating for a turf race,) against how many he raced against, (the larger fields, the better rating,) and the class in which it raced.
If one does not want to o it themselves Bris includes it in their All Ways program.
They do it like Scott wrote, but I tweaked it by using only final finish and making my own class comparison chart. This tweak allows me to now compare foreign pps with ours when I make my ratings.
Second is a form rating consisting of recency, running line, and stretch call.
Third is my pace figure. I make Hambleton figures because they are simple and reliable. Most important--- I don't use variants for turf races since most tracks run so few per day, maybe only one route and sprint. With 2 exceptions, off tracks I subtract one tick per variant point above average of turf variants, and Gulfstream I subtract one tick per variant point above average which lets me know or suspect if it was from a race with the rails out.
Important point--- when picking a pace line to make my figure, I learned from Michael Pizzolla's "Handicapping Magic" book to use all pace lines to find the best, most representative line.
Where I rely more on recent lines for dirt races, I used to usually use the most recent race for turf races to make a pace figure which led to many losses.
My bets generally are any horse that is in the top 3 PCR and Total Pace Rating with no form defects.
If a marathon--over 1 1/14 -- I don't make speed/pace ratings and rely on PCR, form and marathon distance breeding.
Even though it takes me longer to handicap turf races, because I have to look up breeding for horses with 2 or fewer turf races, and make multiple pace ratings to find the "best" I now have confidence when I handicap turf races.
I hope you find at least one useful nugget here.
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