Quote:
Originally Posted by porchy44
Not sure if your using hyperbole or just bad at math.
That's like saying if the Federal Govt tax rate is 0% or 99%, a $100 check is still going to be a $100 check !
|
$100 is $100
But that’s not what we are getting at here. If a favorite has an efficient rate of 2:1, that’s what it’s going to be bet to unless you’re betting into an inefficient pool at some state fair meet with a WPS pool of $10k. Your smart players (where the bulk of the money comes in from) aren’t going to bet it down to 9:5 because the takeout is lower and they certainly won’t pay more than 2:1 due to a lower takeout
If bettors wanted prices to rise, they’d advocate to get ADWs out of the game. They’re creating a channel for a select group of players to bet at underlay prices that get them to an efficient price via the rebate
In reference to whether I beat the mutuel prices, yes, but I’m selective on what I bet. That doesn’t mean that I don’t bet, that means I’ll sit a race or 20 out if I don’t find a legitimate overlay. I won’t cry about a steward’s decision and most importantly, I will hit an overlay hard enough at a distance and surface that I know produces for me. I’ve spent weekends at AP waiting for the overlay I’m looking for, I guess that’s a comment on the role racing secretaries across the country play in producing prices. The only state imo that consistently produces overlays in the country is the Maryland Jockey Club, and that’s only because most bettors don’t read the race description to see how a higher class horse can be entered. It’s also because there aren’t too many of us that can translate video images into unstructured data into a PP with accurate run ups, fractions, and then build machine learning algorithms on top of it
