Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
So, therefore, if the takeout was (say) 60% the game would still be fine?
Wouldn't make any difference at all?
Game would still be exactly the same in terms of difficulty to beat?
And, were the takeout reduced to (say) 2%, it would not make the game easier to beat?
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60% would be in the area of diminishing returns, but I defer to those that make money off those pools to decide what the optimal takeout is and with 10,000 races run a year across a myriad of markets at all hours of the day, we don’t even have to take a random sample to perform the BTL and ATL testing though I think that Canterbury demonstrated via its below the line test a few years ago that lowering takeout hurt the customers it depends on to actually put on the show. That should have been enough to put an end to whiny customers and takeout, maybe they’re hoping that time forgot that Canterbury’s handle didn’t show enough of a gain to justify lowering takeout
If we reduced takeout to 2%, the odds on the lower priced horses would stay the same and where you would see a variation is is on each side of the inverse belle curve when a 60:1 hits the board that used to be 55:1 because we are all guessing on the likelihood (underlay vs overlay) of a horse like that winning. They also, as has been demonstrated for over a century (forgive me if I can’t remember what year it was when the guy in Pittsburgh created past performances), are the least likely to win meaning that lowering the takeout would have the following effects:
- Reduce purse accounts
- Reduce wagering opportunities as owners need to run at a purse level to rationalize the cost of the horse
- Reduce purchase prices of bloodstock due to the first two points
- Not put a single extra cent in the overwhelming majority of bettors’ pockets
So, if you want to have less owners, less trainers, less racing opportunities, less breeding programs, etc., jump on board the alphabet soup train with the conductor that can’t even be bothered to comb his hair let alone articulate anything that I just did
