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I agree, the OP needs good record keeping data in order to know what to expect in specific tracks, race types, surfaces, distances, etc.. For example, your record keeping might show that in 6f dirt races for claimers, in order to make a flat win bet profit at that track in those races, you need at least 5/2 odds on the lowest priced horse of the 3, etc.
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In my experience, I have issues with the bold part. I have not ever been able to say that playing above (say) 5/2 is profitable. Sure, perhaps on a particular horse that was once possible, but with the extreme movement of the tote, not any more.
Your experience may differ, of course.
My reality is that the few odds-on horses I wager are marginal losers but, since I don't use the tote board in my decision process, I don't know they will be odds-on until the horses are down the backstretch of later.
I do have the occasional race where I win the 2-horse bet and barely break-even.
Instead, I have chosen to create a bet-size metric based upon the percentage of
theoretical pool I am NOT betting and the pool that is made up of my NON-CONTENDERS.
Thus, going into a race with 2 horses projected to be (say) 8/5 and 2/1 could only become a playable race for me if they were the ONLY contenders I had in the race.
BTW, one of my favorite spot exacta plays is when I have 2 low-odds contenders and there is a 3rd low-odds horse that I have tossed. These exactas return amazing money - often as much as $24 (5/1 net) or more.
