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Originally Posted by mountainman
So true. And I 've read that proponents of speed-point systems profit from the "universal bias, " but my gut says it is leaders that didn't project to lead that drive the ROI up.
Also, I've learned that early speed is surprisingly often a by product of sharp form or innate superiority, rather than an intrinsic trait. Plus, lots of horses change running styles (and not always in accordance with distance or strategy) from season to season, or even within the same campaign.
And how about the "super trainer" factor? In many instances, the horses they improve on become front runners despite having no such history.
Thanks for posting the stats. It's been awhile since I profiled a track or saw up-to-date numbers on the strike rate of first call leaders. Maybe I misremember, but the win rate seems higher than 10 or 15 years ago. Could this be attributable to diminishing field sizes?
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No problem.
I do think field size is a factor for sure. I broke this down by field size once and it played out as expected regardless of distance and surface.
