Quote:
Originally Posted by aaron
Probably the most important trainer patterns in the game today are short term hot and cold streaks. Some very talented players have been able to recognize these trends early on in a meet. Doing this can swing odds in your favor. Being able to throw out known trainers with good patterns when they are cold is a talent and not easy to do. Some players pick this up by watching replays and are able to determine a certain trainers horses are not running as expected. Then they can tell when it seems to turn around and adjust accordingly. Some of these players just would throw out the trainer in their pick bets unless there was some sort of extenuating circumstance. Usually a very small field or a trip you can't ignore. With so many players betting multiple tracks, this talent seems harder than ever.
|
I don't have a problem with that approach other than I've always found it difficult to separate random hot and cold streaks from legitimate issues that could impact a trainers results.
For example:
In the spring when a lot of horses are coming off a layoff, a trainer might have all his horses ready off the layoff or they all might all be a race or a few works short. You can pick up on something like that.
Maybe a bug is going around in a particular barn and a bunch of horses missed some training and are running below par, but it's hard to know that.
Maybe a trainer freshened up a bunch horses for an assault on a particular meet like Saratoga.
Maybe a trainer has a new vet (ahem).
But a lot of the time I think it's just random noise. The horses may be running fine. They just aren't good enough.
