Quote:
Originally Posted by MPRanger
I just don't think it's that hard to find the contenders with old school speed, pace, class and form elements of handicapping. Have you or whoever's system this is run a regression analysis around this Par?
That was in my original post ref Mr. Benter using a model. William Quirin offered a good discussion of regression analysis for his study in Winning at the Races appendix B p. 301.
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I believe there’s an important distinction that has to made between what one might consider a real contender and an animal that just looks good on paper. I personally believe after seeing the results of hundreds of races when compared to their related tote analysis that the contenders can be objectively deduced. Having also used the old school handicapping methodologies in the past I can also say that any interpretation of those elements is purely subjective. I value the objective information primarily because it already has an integral significance since it’s based on money which after all is what this game is all about.
I’m not sure if a regressive analysis of the Par value alone would provide any consequence. I’ve been informed that the formulas being used in tote analysis are heavily influenced by the human psychology of gambling. How that discipline is converted to a mathematical formula is beyond my pay grade. I really don’t find it necessary to understand the underlying nut-and-bolts as to how the tote analysis functions when I can produce results like this:
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=160763
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...d.php?t=160454
