Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
When you refer to money flow, are you trying to sperate "inside" more informed money from the money being bet by the general public?
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When I refer to money flow I’m observing the periodic changes that the tote analysis provides during a typical betting cycle. The changes are the numerical values for each entry that the analysis provides. It also creates what’s called a Par value that’s based on All of monies combined being analyzed. These values are then visually compared at 3 pre-determined betting intervals prior to post time. The time between these intervals vary based on the size of the typical betting handle being examined. The entries with values closest to the Par value are of primary interest and will eventually establish our belief in which are the real contenders in the race.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MPRanger
.... if I may. And Nitro can correct me if I'm wrong. He doesn't seem to be making a distinction on whose money it is, just that the market is efficient. He hasn't expounded on it enough for me to know. But I think it's a given that late money is more efficient than earlier money.
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From what I understand there’s no need to distinguish where the money originates from. The analysis works by monitoring its flow by evaluating its movement in terms of when, where, and how much is entering each of the betting pools at the desired time intervals. Be it early or late money the primary consideration is always the number value relationships between each entry and Par.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MPRanger
....it reflects all known information about the stock. With any change in fact or expectation there's a thousand sharks waiting to pounce which keeps prices fair. But there must be some mispricing in the market or there is no opportunity to profit. It's one thing to buy stock and hold onto it as it increases in value over time as the overall market grows and another to be able to time the market and jump in and out as opportunities arise if anyone can really do that. EMH say's you can't.
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When I once explained how I now played the horse racing game to a close friend of mine, he suggested that it’s very similar to what he and his associates do when playing the stock market. They like to find companies to invest in where they’ve discovered that the principals have also a substantial vested interest. Apparently they believe that it’s a much better investment knowing that the owners themselves have such high regard for their company’s profit potential.
A good Example:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
SA- Tote Analysis – 5/16/20
Race #8 – 5-3 W/ 1-2-9 @ 3 mins to post
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Post #23
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/n...eply&p=2603660
TOTE ANALYSIS for Race # 8 – (Entries w/Computed Values closest to PAR are always of interest)
Code:
POST 3m 7m 12m ENT#
157 148 179 166 1
158 150 123 113 2
155 137 131 94 3
194 209 198 115 4
152 138 124 129 5
242 242 222 226 6
300 276 266 253 7
390 399 389 425 8
180 150 161 157 9
229 238 226 208 10
180 167 162 149 PAR
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro
Results:
Race #8 = 1-2-3-9-10 = TRI & SUPER BX & BIG Value with the Fav. Out!
Code:
POS # Horse Win Place Show
1st: 1 Smiling Shirlee $9.60 $5.00 $3.40
2nd: 2 Bella Vita $7.60 $5.20
3rd: 3 Been Studying Her $4.00
4th: 9 Warren's Showtime
5th: 10 Homehome
• $2.00 EXACTA 1-2 $75.40
• $2.00 TRIFECTA 1-2-3 $326.20
• $2.00 SUPERFECTA 1-2-3-9 $1,488.00
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