Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
DRF has done it with the Projected Odds tool in Formulator. It isn't perfect, as nothing will be for this, but it is certainly better than what you see on the tote.
I certainly don't think Andy was saying to use the exacta pool or the double pool into the next race. Why would he, they are usually going to mimic the win pool as you say. They don't provide "tells" of what is to come.
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The horse's expected odds strictly based on the double willpay was roughly 10.5:1. Given the dispersal of takeout in the double vs win betting, 9:1 was probably the most anyone could reasonably expect from the horse's final odds. The point wasn't that one could predict that horse's, or any horse's, exact final odds. The point is that by using willpays, anyone can fairly easily come up with reasonably likely final odds, and thus not bet 8:5 shots ( or whatever ) just because their odds with a minute or two to post are 5:1.
This is a complicated game. That's likely what has attracted the vast majority of us to it. Pretty much everyone here is always looking for any edge we can get. I simply do not understand the never ending threads around here whining about late odds changes when there is a very simple way ( at least at the more major tracks....like Del Mar ) to guessing likely final odds. We spend hours handicapping but can't spend seconds deciphering this? Seriously?
The discussion of the meat that the CAW players have gnawed off the bone is a very good one. Rebates are what has obviously created this. However, I hear a lot of people who survive on rebates complaining about the CAW players. That seems like a slippery slope. But, I digress. Start looking at willpays and stop pulling your hair out pretending there was no way you could have known your 18:1 shot was actually going to close at 8:1. Surely there are better ways to spend that time ( like posting on the internet
).
