Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
I'm not sure assuming the smartest money in the pool is giving you value on another horse would work out very well. In spots, sure, but you better have a good reason to think they are wrong.
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If an obvious contender (meaning Fav or near-fav odds) is on my 'Bet' radar, as long as the horse isn't crushed down to ridiculous underlay territory, then I actually see 'Cold' board action as a negative model rather than an overlay opportunity.
I'd rather decide whether a ~2/1 horse is a bettable 8/5 fair-overlay in advance. ~2/1? fine. >8/5? fine. If he's cold in will-pays and/or goes up to 3/1-7/2 while another contender is taking money, then I just realized that I don't understand the race or the market here.
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
I hear you. I usually don't bet unless I have a reason to think I know why the board is wrong. When I disagree with the board and don't understand why, I typically assume my figures are wrong or that clockers/insiders know something about a change in a horse's condition that I don't know etc... I'm more cautious.
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I agree.
When I come up with a long-shot or a vulnerable favorite to bet, these are contrarian type of plays. I have an opinion on something that is not obvious. The money may not get it right. This is kind of an opposite case as what I just replied to CJ.
Here, I do not want the market to significantly agree with me. If my ml:2/1 false favorite is cold on the board and no longer a favorite it's just a 'Pass' for me.
