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Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz
I have no intention of turning this in to a flame thread.
I congratulate you that you are having such splendid results.
My point was that you seemed to be advising people to do it this way and I firmly believe that this is the longer, less effective way of doing things.
But I am curious... how many horses are you typically in love with at the beginning of the day?
Of those horses, how many do you usually wager on?
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I have no intentions on turning this into a flame thread either.
I wouldn't exactly call 30% splendid either.It's only that because I refuse to bet on anything less than 2-1 and the 2-1 shots I do bet are even money on my line.
Usually there are 2 horses a card I absolutely love.4 of the last 8 won and I didn't bet 2 of them because of odds.The winners ranged from 2-1 to 9/2.
Beyond those type of horses, races I grade B or B/C,meaning I feel like I know the race and there aren't an endless array of possibles for the other spots,I hit at a decent enough frequency in the middle odds ranges to secure a positive ROI.
I see value in contentious races and races where there are more than 6 win possibilities,but I won't take low odds in them and and they are usually in the C grade range.Contentious or calamity.
What I think I am hearing from you is that the worse the grade,the more you are fired up to get into these races.And on the other hand are assuming I am sitting there chalkaholic betting the hell out of favorites.I think you are presuming too much of me and slotting me into an idea of a bettor.And I am presuming that you are targeting the anything can happen races and that's where value lies.When I sit down on a Saturday morning and do my personalized report card I know that if I start betting too many races on the lower half of the grading spectrum I'm,for lack of a better word,****ing up unless I'm getting outstanding odds.And likewise I know I'm doing the same if I ever even indulge horses less than 2-1.In every available bet those horses have returned next to nothing since 2001 for me.I don't bother.
As far as this thread Dave myself and other have had open ended curiosities about things beyond pen and paper capping and all I have seen from you are denouncements and a few laughs.It irritates me.I like to be in the know.When the advertizers of things I respect and plan on buying think that I am a joke it doesn't sit well bro!
