Quote:
Originally Posted by jay68802
As far as figure makers adjusting the final figure for pace goes, I am pretty sure Timeform adjusts, Bris is computer generated and the adjustment is built in also, Beyer might but am not sure about them.
My question is why, as a handicapper, you would be using a race with such an extreme, to help make a decision on how talented the horse is? Such a extreme has already caused the original poster to question his own figures. It should also cause the handicapper to question the race for all the horses involved. You can not accurately account for the extreme and all of its affect on the outcome of a race. The only thing you can do is remove it from the process, and use other races to base your decision on.
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TimeformUS does adjust its final figure for pace but Bris, Beyer, Equibase, T-Graph and Rags do not. The advantage of adjusting for pace is to give a horse credit for having run a race unevenly. It is an attempt to correct its final figure to what it would have likely run if it had run a better early pace. I do see your point that if a horse did run extremely an fast or slow early pace it would not be the best race to judge a horse's ability, especially if one uses the unadjusted final figure. In either case it is always better to use the last most representative race of a horse in terms of pace, distance, surface and trip. However, in many cases the horse's pace was enough to affect it's final figure but not enough to be a throwout. that's where a pace adjusted final figure is most useful. but not extreme enough to make That's what TFUS does when it gives the Spotlight Figure.
Just because the pce of the race was fast doesn't mean that the horse's own pace figure was fast too. It may have laid back off that hotpace. That's why you should use the individual horse's pace figure rather than the one for the leader.
