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Old 12-23-2020, 11:18 AM   #14
Robert Fischer
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Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cj View Post
Just though of this is I typed the above, but 7 points would be worth about 14 pounds on the TimeformUS system, so the 12 I proposed isn't too far off. I'd even say 12 might be better as I doubt the effect of weight is a simple and of course it will vary horse to horse anyway. It doesn't matter on our adjustments currently because we don't see that big a swing very often, if ever.

But I'd guess the more weight is added, the effect starts to grow, something like this:

5 pounds 2 points
10 pounds 5 points
15 pounds 9 points

Good points throughout this thread.

Connections laughed at seven pounds. Only case I can make against it being closer (to 7 than) to your twelve pounds is the tradeoff of trying something new (and that I don't recall well meant horses actually accepting the break).

I'd rather see it twelve pounds or more. If it's a slight penalty rather than a perfect handicap, that's OK in this situation. Can always slightly lower the handicap after some data. The point is to make lasix-free the standard, and make taking on a weight handicap as a case of whether the horse is a bleeder who only benefits from lasix, not to have trainers simply doubling down, or making gentleman's agreements.
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