Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
The spread is easier to use as an example. But mathematically, the money line works exactly the same. Small movements in the money line do not create a large enough edge, and due to massive variance you are going to need a very large sample of large line shifts before you can say for sure you are beating the game.
Randall, I understand math better than you do, and the psychology of and common fallacies of gambling. I can recognize rationalization and small sample sizes Those are really the only tools necessary to see that you are totally wrong about this. (Also, I highly doubt that many football or basketball bettors refuse in principle to bet point spreads. People are too degen in real life.)
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I am confused. Are you saying there are no successful sports bettors? Isn't betting lines for sporting events similar to horse racing? The linesmaker sets a line and the action will dictate movements. In racing you bet on horses where the odds differ from your opinion. In sports betting the same is true. A skilled sports bettor can certainly find an edge.
Your posts indicate that you are well versed in the mathematics of gambling. What they don't indicate is an ability to determine the skill sets of other posters.
