Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
A couple of things to remember:
1. Just because line fluctuations are theoretically exploitable doesn't mean you can successfully exploit it. You need to know the close to exact probabilities that the Saints win by 6 instead of 7. Without that, you are unlikely to accurately exploit. Who has that? Linemakers and some extremely serious sports betting operations. Not likely anyone on this board.
2. Most line fluctuations are within the 2 1/2 percent takeout that is the vigorish. In other words, if the Saints are 48.7 percent likely to win by 7 and 50.8 percent likely to win by 6, you have no edge on either line.
3. To exploit this, you need to therefore pick your spots extremely carefully. Anyone who is betting 10 games a week on this theory is going to be a long term loser.
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Bottom-line, you only bet the money-line in all major sports.....The spread has always been and will always be for suckers, and to the house' advantage. BTW, you have no clue as to whom is on this board, thus it's obvious that this is not your field of expertise, among other things you've spoken of in the past outside of poker.....
