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[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by HalvOnHorseracing

You will find that occasionally in Vegas, at least according to some of the people I know that are big money sports bettors. There have been recent instances in the Super Bowl where Vegas has won or lost big, and I doubt they didn't know the line was going to push the action to one side or another. There are also times when the books - and don't kid yourself, they all know exactly what each other are doing - will set what is called a "trap line." That is a line that looks like it clearly favors one team when the sharpies actually favor the other team.

There is one company that sets the lines for 90% of the casinos. Then, there are a few big players are actually allowed to place their bets before the line is released to the general public, and the books use those players to adjust the line for release to the public.

Many people don't know that the line is only a determinant in the outcome of a NFL game about 17% of the time. About 50% of the time, the favorite wins and covers the line. About 33% of the time the underdog will win outright. And about 17% of the time the favorite wins but does not cover. That's how you get to 50-50 with the line.

When you accept bets right up to the start of the game...you never get a 50-50 split on the betting action of these games. Plus...the bookmakers are hesitant to move the line in a sizable way when the wagered money is one-sided...because they then run the risk of getting "middled" by the bettors who first wagered on the "advantageous line". It isn't risk-free to be a bookmaker...regardless of what the popular notion seems to be.