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Originally Posted by no breathalyzer
so what this chart really shows proves my point... you have a 46% chance of winning on the grass if you sit right off the speed 2nd/3rd/4th... as we all know ( i hope  ).. horses are usually bunched close together on grass.
The optimal place to be is inside saving ground with a target to run down period.... to be clear i don't like it either win a jockey chokes a horse out with a strangle hold.. but that's why they do it |
Another poor interpretation in this thread, but we often see what we want to see. The data I posted shows that speed is more important on dirt. Of course it is, everyone already knows that. But it also shows that the closer a horse is to the front on turf, the better the chances of winning. Sure, all the other positions added up together have a better chance than the leader, but the best is up front.
I'd also add that turf racing is a lot more likely to see a hopeless horse run out to the lead than dirt racing which holds back the win percentage a bit.
