Quote:
Originally Posted by BarchCapper
Asmussen 1st time blinkers on in stakes past 5 years - 28-2-3-1
(Private Creed, Powerful)
Wearing blinkers in graded stakes past 5 years - 82-6-7-10
(Gunite 2x, Max Player 2x, Jalen Journey, Tenfold)
And for what it's worth if you're thinking Kentucky Derby, not Arkansas as the ultimate target:
Blinkers off in graded stakes: 3-0-0-0
|
Thanks.
The one I could remember was Creator. More than 5 years ago and also was more of a plodder than a winning type.
I don't go big on stats in these situations (and not a dismissal of these stats, and I appreciate you posting them. There's a lot going on e.g. say perhaps Assmussen slaps blinkers on plodders, and is actually improving their chances by doing so, yet we glance at the stats and think it hurts their chances because we don't factor in that possibility. Or maybe it is hurting their chances. Or maybe we do a really fair job of considering the stats and I'm just wasting calories on typing so many explanations and footnotes that it's turning new fans away from the game! They would come to LOVE horse racing, but Robert Fischer would write these well intentioned but awful posts that only die hard players appreciated but were actually KILLING the game. #2coffee_limit, jace
) , but in general Steve may be exposing his hand that he believes the horse to be a plodder.
Maybe that's all it means?
RR1 projected about lastomundo, and then Santana jumps over to the 'fun' Assman horse Harlocap (a darth vader Baffert expatriate who plays for the Raiders). Winchell is obviously a prized ownership, and the homebred status is no slight in this operation. Tyler Gaffalione in the irons.
I don't know Red Route One well enough yet to know. The Rebel's race flow was favorable to closerss\7
that flow alone doesn't mean Red Route One was not 2nd best or even best in the rebel, and I haven't finished handicapping the Arkansas Derby to put in my two cents.
It does present a significant model that represents a possibility of the Rebel favoring closers and possibly exaggerating their true abilities which often leads to overbetting in subsequent stakes races, where horses' finish position is overbet as if it is a true measure of their literal abilities.
