Quote:
Originally Posted by PalaceOfFortLarned
How do you even compete?
Those Elite teams are getting upwards of 10% rebates and have teams of geniuses and serious big time money.
Pretty damn sobering article.
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I don't think we have much of a prayer of out analyzing them in terms of making an accurate odds line for all the horses in every race.
They are going to weigh speed figures, pace figures, current form, jockey, trainer, consistency, distance, surface, post position, days since last race etc.. better than we can.
But IMO, when it comes to evaluating biases, pace/race flow, changes in physical condition in the paddock from race to race, subtle positional advantages/disadvantages, those are in part visual skills. They can hire a team of very sharp people to input trip information, but it's still human vs human.
What's happening is that the overall odds are becoming way more efficient. That leaves fewer true overlays. So if want to have any prayer long term, imo we have to be more selective and focus on areas where we are at least battling another human instead of trying to out calculate math geniuses armed with learning computers.
