Had a hard time discriminating these runners. They all seem to carve out a suitable role in the pace scenario. Most have some good figs or plenty of upside. Let me try to break this down after poring over the PPs, thread, and some public handicapper previews.
I guess we can toss the
. O.K., 11 to go.
The
doesn't do much for me, either, but my 11th favorite is already getting hard to dismiss entirely. Just seems like an obligatory shot rather than any clever chance to get the money.
Here's where it gets weird: the
, Disarm. I'd nearly dismissed him on paper, but then I see Beer and Illman both on him, and Robert Fischer admiring his prospects here. I can't tell the upside promise from lack of experience on this one, but apparently it's more obvious to the sharps. Aragona and Milkowski were not impressed, though. Staring down single-digit odds, I'll let this fourth ML choice beat me.
Speaking of Aragona and Milkowski, folks are asking, "where's the speed?" Those two make a compelling case for
Jace's Road, in a race conspicuously lacking for pace in a field of 12. TFUS Pace Projector has
on the front, but that one seems more prone to stalk, and a cut below the top tier here in only its third race. Upside is there, but so's the short third-choice price. Maybe the
is too logical, but if double-digit odds hold at 6th choice or more, it's a bet.
The
and
stand out on figs, from the same allowance race on these grounds last out, but Milkowski acknowledged Aragona's skepticism there. The
may be the most exposed in the field—I'll quote Markus Hersh, "how much improvement could he have?" If I have to take one of these, it's
.
What to make of the
running here after connections signaling otherwise? Beer thinks they should send this one. Underwhelming flattening out in the Risen Star, as strong a race as any here have run in. Inclined to use him at double-digit odds, but he's on that bubble with
for fourth choice.
One of five 12-1 contenders for sixth ML choice, maybe the
gets most overlooked. It's faced the toughest competition, including one of only two G1 races run by these (the other by the favorite). Thing is, the corresponding performances were uninspiring. Maybe there's a sneaky distance advantage here. Usable if it fades below the ML pecking order.
Maybe
is the more subtle Asmussen trainee than the
. Santana has ridden both, winds up on this one. The big "if" is the break, followed by gaining a bit more position off the rail than projected, followed by whether it fades off that 12-1 tier. That's a lot of "ifs," but they point to a solid value in the vertical mix.
The main knock on the top two is chalk. And late running style in a race curiously devoid of pace. I'll use them defensively in deeper verticals.
Where's that leave me?
I'll come back for wagers later.
