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Thread: Louisiana Derby
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Old 03-25-2023, 04:26 AM   #13
boys at tosconova
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many different ways to go about this race. but for the sake of just playing exactas i believe you really have to start with the two fav's. 2/6 to give yourself the best chance to hit it.

that leaves you 3 more to get it to realistic number. i mean, if you're boxing 5 horses and don't include them it just seems dicey.

pecking order favoritism should be lower on many horses that you think will be higher as well.

i don't see much value in the 4 considering his running style. and that horse might be 3rd choice. i'm sure the 11 will get over bet as well just going down the line as logical speed.

after that i really don't know what things will be for many horses. the 1/5/9 might be lower than you think as well. don't know where the 7/10 will be but i think the 7 will get more action and similar to the 1/5/9 in the 5-10-1 range.

i just think that many people will be disappointed when they see the odds.

good news is if you like a few of the big longshots. as they're not without hope in a race that's hard to eliminate anyone.

it's pretty hard to to pick only 3 more from 10 horses. you're going to have to take a stand on many horses that can beat you.

for me i let the jock eliminate the horse by taking another. can't really play the 3 afer his last race. santana picked the 1 over the 5 so there goes another. geroux picked the 11 over the 9 so there's another. 10 is next for various reasons and the 12 will be last in the race. bingo, down to 6 horses. but i want to be at 5

1/2/6/(7)/8/11

not a very glamorous five. and prolly the only way for a big payout is for the 8 (watch his strange last race.)to get into the number. i really want to work the 7 in this ticket as well. he will be used in some form.

as for trips i will prolly dabble with the 2/6 on top with those other horses. the payoffs might be much bigger than the exacta. but the thing is i really don't love he two fav's that much.

Last edited by boys at tosconova; 03-25-2023 at 04:37 AM.
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