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Thread: Louisiana Derby
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Old 03-21-2023, 02:08 PM   #1
f2tornado
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Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Bismarck, ND
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Louisiana Derby

Shopper's Revenge - S. Asmussen
Instant Coffee - B. Cox
Curly Jack - T. Amoss
Sun Thunder - K. McPeek
Disarm - S. Asmussen
Kingsbarns - T. Pletcher
Cagliostro - C. DeVaux
Single Ruler - J. Desormeaux
Tapit's Conquest - B. Cox
Denington - K. McPeek
Jace's Road - B. Cox
Baseline Beater - N. Pessin

I'm not terribly impressed with this year's field, however, the prep has produced a lot Kentucky Derby board hitters in recent years and one winner (by DQ) and therefore requires appropriate attention for potential wagers on Roses day. There's not much separation on paper between most of these, and given the number of entrants, the race has potential to produce healthy exotics payouts.

The is a legitimate chalk but ran an underwhelming 33 second final two and a half panels in the Lecomte. Stanley Caris fans will appreciate his Buckpasser-x and 23-b tail female family. Saez up is a big plus. Enough there to use on top but not a single for me. Does he have enough tactical speed? Most winners in this feature are near the engine at the 1/2 mile call. The ran well in the Risen Star but got outkicked to the wire and now must go an extra half. Seems more like an exotics contender than a win. Might need a meltdown. The takes a big step up in class but has the bloodlines to appreciate this distance. The pilot has won the last two renewals and the trainer is no stranger the winner's circle. Could pop but looks like more of an exotics contender. The looked just swell at Tampa and has room to improve. Like the J/T and this one seems worth a win play at the price. Looks like one that will be be sitting close to the front. The is improving horse for course that has potential to spoil gimmicks. gets a hot Franco and Cox is no slouch here. is well raced at this point. Ran a nice Brisnet figure last out and would likely need to improve yet again to contend here. Doesn't have the running style that typically wins this event. Would likely need a meltdown to contend for the exacta. has a great J/T combo for the track. Maybe draw a line through last out in the Oaklawn slop unless it rains here Saturday. If he runs like he did in the Gun Runner then will be a credible threat. Slight knock on the draw but there's not much for urgent speed in this affair and he should have no trouble getting in position. Never underestimate Cox's "other" entrant. He pulls a Baffert sometimes like he did in the Risen Star.

Learning toward a exacta box here if the track is fast. Just about anything else could hit the trifecta or dime super.
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