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Old 03-02-2023, 05:18 PM   #35
Nitro
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Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: NY
Posts: 18,974
Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper View Post
That's some very powerful stuff if it's even close to sustainable.

For me, a major key to this game is to find a really bad favorite or other very low priced horse to key against. Some will win, but if they win at half the rate they are supposed to win, it's pretty hard to lose betting against them. That's tougher to do than people think.

I don't expect you to elaborate on how you separated them, but I'm going to ask anyway.
I can show you what I meant when I mentioned “What I discovered from the remaining races was that 57% of those entries illustrating a specific value relative to Par won the race”.
Now I wouldn’t expect you understand everything that’s going on with the format of the tote analysis I use, but essentially what I look for at 3 minutes to post (shown as the 4th betting interval) is whether the betting favorite has both the designated odds level and the lowest entry value relative to the value of Par.

Tote Analysis for Race #9 – Santa Anita – Mon 2-20-23
Code:

PP	M/L	OPEN	4TH	PP	END	4th	3rd	2nd 	1st 	FIN
POS	ODDS	ODDS	ODDS	POS	110	96	93	91	94	PAR
1	6.0 	4.5 	4.5 	1	99	83	70	73	81	
2	12.0 	31.0 	36.0 	2	233	214	193	174	176	3
3	5.0 	4.5 	3.0 	3	136	86	85	89	101	4
4	3.0 	5.0 	4.5 	4	81	96	82	82	78	5
5	5.0 	13.0 	12.0 	5	164	186	204	205	162	
6	5.0 	14.0 	12.0 	6	120	125	135	174	195	
7	12.0 	6.0 	9.0 	7	89	87	90	88	89	2
8	4.0 	2.0 	2.5 	8	94	59	56	41	47	1
9	12.0 	13.0 	17.0 	9	149	155	154	149	167	

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