Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board


View Single Post
Old 03-02-2023, 11:23 AM   #32
classhandicapper
Registered User
 
classhandicapper's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,610
Quote:
Of those 500 races about 50% showed lower odds and of no interest. What I discovered from the remaining races was that 57% of those entries illustrating a specifically analyzed value relative to the unique Par value won the race. Of the remaining 43% that lost, 18% of them Placed. Aside from finding this distinct evaluation, I later realized what I had stumbled upon when considering that the average final odds for these winning entries was around 2.3/1. Using a $2 base line Win bet the total bet would be $500. The gross return would be about $940 which produced a net profit of $440.

So, while I was able to isolate a majority of false favorites the true favorites discovered at the odds value range specified could certainly become decent plays.
That's some very powerful stuff if it's even close to sustainable.

For me, a major key to this game is to find a really bad favorite or other very low priced horse to key against. Some will win, but if they win at half the rate they are supposed to win, it's pretty hard to lose betting against them. That's tougher to do than people think.

I don't expect you to elaborate on how you separated them, but I'm going to ask anyway.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
classhandicapper is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
 
» Advertisement
» Current Polls
Wh deserves to be the favorite? (last 4 figures)
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:41 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.