Quote:
Originally Posted by Poindexter
Has Barry and Ken Massa done updates on the stats? Wasn't this written 3 to 5 years ago? Knowing the stats on a certain angle obviously should include the most recent data. Seems to me like ever 2 or 3 years or so they should do an update on each angle and just sell the updates for like 15 bucks a pop. Maybe they already do?
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I agree.
The game changes and so do the values associated with various factors, approaches, and angles as gamblers scour databases looking for value and as different major players move into and out of the game.
To me, that's one of the great dilemmas of the game.
If you try to build an odds line, it's often going to be flawed because you have inaccurate or incomplete information and understanding or you are weighing the various factors wrong.
If you try to focus on specific situations where there may be value, you can't be sure what was true in the past is still true now because the betting patterns may have changed.
The most obvious example of changes in betting patterns are trainer patterns. If you look at some angle for a trainer over a decent sized sample it may be profitable, but as the sample grows, the prices will keep falling. So even if it keeps winning at the same rate going forward, it may be unprofitable going forward.
