Quote:
Originally Posted by dnlgfnk
I wouldn't touch baseball...
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/is-baseb...-random-sport/
One needs roughly 500 PA's for home runs to even be static, i.e., develop a probability. Incidentally, randomness doesn't exist in the macro-material world. It is a description of human ignorance (we don't know the physical facts why this or that occurred).
I remember a post of mine from sources citing basketball as most predictive.
Too many of these outcomes on a daily basis... https://www.baseball-reference.com/b...02205250.shtml
Will Trea Turner get doubled up (Wash .77 per game)? Freeman take an 0-fer? vs. Fedde?(+5 ERA, !.6+ WHIP)
Even Benter's naivete let him down in baseball, at last report.
I'll stick with the running horse, where I often can know much of why a horse performed the way he did by evaluating the pace, position on track, etc.
Even if I want to pour through Statcast data on barrels in baseball, how do I apply it to Freeman's 4 PA's today? |
Interesting article. I did not read the paper those college professors wrote but the article makes the case that baseball has the most amount of luck, smallest home team advantage and according to them is the closest thing to a coin toss of any other sport. I think the NHL has the best home field advantage and baseball the worst. It is usually right around 54% home field advantage for baseball.
Of course there is the "luck" factor. The best teams though usually make the best luck. They don't get unlucky and blow the big leads like the poor teams. The poor manager is unlucky because he takes the pitcher out to soon or too late. Its kind of like how the best boxer always seem to land that "lucky" punch.
If any team goes 4-3 over each 7 game series of games they are in the playoffs. Parity, maybe. If we look at the top 8 teams their record playing against clubs with a record of over .500 was .540.
For me I think baseball is best sport to bet, depending on if you are getting a dime line. The mass of statistics available to predict the outcome of baseball games are very relevant whether you are betting the sides, totals, run line or even props.
As far as Benter goes I think I remember I read somewhere that he was making a profit in baseball but it was not what he had hoped. I don't know if that is true or not. Maybe he bailed too early. I don't know. I would be pretty sure with all his knowledge he could do very well. Just my two cents.
