Quote:
Originally Posted by castaway01
You're ignoring short-term trends, which I've seen people do in racing too. Or at least I used to, right here on this site. At one time it was "well yeah that trainer has won 3 of their last 4 claims, but is it statistically profitable over 5 years blah blah". While I cashed tickets. Now of course it has gone the other way where all of the value has been sucked out. But the minute you say something about 500 plate appearances, you show that while you might do well in season-long fantasy baseball, you don't understand baseball betting.
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I understand baseball betting. And current trend betting. So does your linemaker, who has baked in the trends. I would rather speculate on who, among the #'s 2, 4, 5, 6, or 7 in GP's opener, can run third or fourth today in a vertical exotic. To get a roughly similar projected return (6-1), I would need to bet a three team parlay in baseball.
I'm much more confident in the running styles of horses, the projected inner dynamics of a race, and the relatively inefficient market in those lower rungs of a vertical exotic, than I am in, say, Jose Quintana beating Alex Wood on April 20 by 1.5 runs, when the Correa-aided Mets invade SF for the first time, for roughly a 6-5 return.
