Quote:
Originally Posted by romankoz
For someone who has been a bettor since 1967 I believe I can speak with a degree of authority considering the hours I have put into form analysis.
My first piece of advice is to learn what causes favourites OVERALL to be beaten form wise. The major factors will be distance, track conditions, fitness and in running positions. The next set of factors will revolve around jockeys and trainers and their abilities to ride and train winners.
My second piece of advice is to only bet serious amounts on horses whose price you believe should be 3/1 or less. This is the toughest part but just imagine you are laying this horse on Betfair. What is the maximum price you would lay this horse at? The answer is your price.
In the finish you want to be on a well fancied horse ridden by a competent jockey and trained by a competent trainer whose horse can run the distance under todays track conditions and doesn't race in the back half of the field and is respected by bettors.
By all means have $2 on 20/1 chances but your serious bets should be at least 20/30 times larger. Basically if you get a 20/1 winner that collect should pay for one of your larger bets.
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Some solid stuff.
IMO hitting a $42.00 horse should always be a difference maker. Not to tread water.
