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Originally Posted by 1st time lasix
I will play a ticket to win or an exacta when I feel compelled based on the value. But..... Over the past decade I have gravitated toward pick 4's...pick 5's and carryover pick 6's. My IRS tax reporting certainly has increased....and here are a few things I have learned....1)be prepared to be frustrated. A steward take down, a lost photo or jockey dumb ride can cost you thousands. 2) seek to play against vulnerable chalk. Perhaps they are on wrong surface or wrong distance. maybe today's pace scenario doesn't fit or the post is a negative. Maybe they are declining in form or are bounce candidates. One or two poor favorites that you have the guts to completely toss out (particularly in first two legs) will give you those overlay returns. 3) spread out far enough in those legs where you have no true handicapping opinion. In other words.... Be prudent-but don't be cheap. 4} the losing streaks can be long and painful at times...have the proper bankroll and train the mindset to play without too much daily scoreboard watching. 5) make multiple tickets...using back ups. Some of my largest hits have come when I only had one or two left in final leg because my top rated contenders lost in a single race but my" back up" kept me alive. 6) hedge at the end using pick 3's and doubles. If you have hit first few legs with "prices"...chances are you no longer have any full coverage with some of your fringe plays. Play them in other pool. Over time with experience you will have a feel for 'will-pays" 7) no substitute for good handicapping. You have to have a strong opinion or two in the sequence for keys.
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I would agree with most everything you wrote above but I find #2 above more applicable to verticals. I may think that an even money horse should be 3-1 but that also means I think the horse still has a 25% chance of winning. I generally don't leave horses off of a ticket that have a 25% chance to win unless I am singling a horse in the same race with a higher chance of winning. I don't let odds sway me until I look at the ticket as a whole.
