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Originally Posted by AndyC
My view on body language is that for me it is a waste of my time. I've got all the books and the videos. I spent many days and hours taking notes and observing but the return on my time spent was not worth it. It is both physically and mentally exhausting to watch the paddock, then watch the warmups and then run to the window to try and get a bet down.
My philosophy is that my handicapping methods are good enough to point out the horses that should be fit and ready to run top race. I trust that the trainers, whose habits I know well, will not waste a race by running an unfit animal. I am sure that I have bet many unfit horses by ignoring body language as a factor but I know many body language experts who tear up a lot of tickets.
An experience I had with Joe Takach cemented my philosophy. It happened at Del Mar where I was discussing the day's card with another handicapper and Joe was listening to the conversation. I really was excited about 3 particular horses and after explaining my reasons Joe chimed in and essentially said my selections had no chance while reeling off a list of maladies for each horse. When each of my selections came romping home a winner I questioned whether spending a lot of time and effort trying to understand body language was time well spent. For the record, I believe that Joe Takach is the hardest working handicapper at the track and I have nothing but admiration for his work ethic and knowledge of horses.
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Modeling--whether of humans or horses--is a fairly easy skill to develop. It is not really all that difficult. What IS difficult is putting essentially qualitative information into a quantitative perceptual framework.
As far as the incredible complexity of horse racing, I think Bradshaw had it down pat.
“... it ain’t nothing but a horse race; just figure out who’s gonna lead and who’s gonna chase.” ~ Jim "The Hat" Bradshaw
Sometimes the complexities and difficulties are subjective perceptions, rather than accurate descriptions of external reality.
