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Old 11-14-2008, 05:50 PM   #6
DanG
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Join Date: May 2005
Location: Tampa,Florida
Posts: 3,440
Interesting topic InControlX;

If any excel user is interested in a neat formula to “simulate” the classic gamblers ruin formula; here’s a post I ran on the HTR bbs a while back. In the interest of time saving I’ll just copy and paste it. (BTW: I’m 9 miles from teaching a computer class so please forgive the generic nature of this.) Original thread: http://www.homebased2.com/forums/sho...ighlight=excel

========================================

Assuming you have Excel here is a handy formula for infamous “gamblers ruin” losing streak formula.

It involves two nested functions:

1. Round:
2. LN: Returns the natural logarithm of a number.

You need to fill in 2 cells:

1. Sample Size (A1)
2. Hit rate (B1)

For this example let’s say your using cell “A1” for sample size and “B1” for hit rate. Sample of 100 and hit rate of 20% which is entered as .20 not as an integer.

Formula;


• =(ROUND(LN(A1)/-LN((1-B1)),0))

Literally…=(ROUND(LN(100)/-LN((1-.20)),0))

Reminder that “LN” is a function not a cell address.

If you don’t have Excel, here’s a chart of theoretical losing streaks based on a sample size of 100 and various win percentages.
Code:
HIT-RATE	PROJ LOSING STREAK
   01%			458
   02%			228
   03%			151
   04%			113
   05%			090
   06%			074
   07%			063
   08%			055
   09%			049
   10%			044
   11%			040
   12%			036
   13%			033
   14%			031
   15%			028
   16%			026
   17%			025
   18%			023
   19%			022
   20%			021
   21%			020
   22%			019
   23%			018
   24%			017
   25%			016
   26%			015
   27%			015
   28%			014
   29%			013
   30%			013
   31%			012
   32%			012
   33%			011
   34%			011
   35%			011
   36%			010
   37%			010
   38%			010
   39%			009
   40%			009
   41%			009
   42%			008
   43%			008
   44%			008
   45%			008
   46%			007
   47%			007
   48%			007
   49%			007
   50%			007
In closing…

If you’re playing that spot play who hits at 2% and on your 228 straight loss...bless you my son and may your pockets be deep and your blood pressure remain stable!
__________________
Dan G
=======================
“We don't stop playing because we grow old; we grow old because we stop playing.”
~ George Bernard Shaw
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