Interesting topic InControlX;
If any excel user is interested in a neat formula to “
simulate” the classic gamblers ruin formula; here’s a post I ran on the HTR bbs a while back. In the interest of time saving I’ll just copy and paste it. (BTW:
I’m 9 miles from teaching a computer class so please forgive the generic nature of this.) Original thread:
http://www.homebased2.com/forums/sho...ighlight=excel
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Assuming you have Excel here is a handy formula for infamous “gamblers ruin” losing streak formula.
It involves two nested functions:
1. Round:
2. LN: Returns the natural logarithm of a number.
You need to fill in 2 cells:
1. Sample Size (A1)
2. Hit rate (B1)
For this example let’s say your using cell “A1” for sample size and “B1” for hit rate. Sample of 100 and hit rate of 20% which is entered as .20 not as an integer.
Formula;
• =(ROUND(LN(A1)/-LN((1-B1)),0))
Literally…=(ROUND(LN(100)/-LN((1-.20)),0))
Reminder that “LN” is a
function not a cell address.
If you don’t have Excel, here’s a chart of
theoretical losing streaks based on a sample size of 100 and various win percentages.
Code:
HIT-RATE PROJ LOSING STREAK
01% 458
02% 228
03% 151
04% 113
05% 090
06% 074
07% 063
08% 055
09% 049
10% 044
11% 040
12% 036
13% 033
14% 031
15% 028
16% 026
17% 025
18% 023
19% 022
20% 021
21% 020
22% 019
23% 018
24% 017
25% 016
26% 015
27% 015
28% 014
29% 013
30% 013
31% 012
32% 012
33% 011
34% 011
35% 011
36% 010
37% 010
38% 010
39% 009
40% 009
41% 009
42% 008
43% 008
44% 008
45% 008
46% 007
47% 007
48% 007
49% 007
50% 007
In closing…
If you’re playing that spot play who hits at 2% and on your 228 straight loss...bless you my son and may your pockets be deep and your blood pressure remain stable!