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Old 05-31-2006, 12:40 PM   #18
speculus
Zapoorzaa!!!
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: India
Posts: 547
Quote:
Originally Posted by chickenhead
yes, but where do you get the # of strides? You count them yourself for every horse in every race at every track, you buy them from someone else, or you don't have them?
In the 1980's (I think it was 1984), involved with reserach which at that time seemed to be leading to blind alleys, or to put it more practically, "NOWHERE", I found strong evidence to suggest that some horses, especially sprinters, were what I would later call the "constant T" horses, T being the time taken by a horse to complete one stride.

The only way I could have checked the truth of this idea was by having accurate finishing times for all horses in all races from the video of a race and then actually, manually counting the strides by playing video in slow motion.

But there were two major problems. The race video in my country (India) was not time-coded at the time, as it is now, with accurate calibration for 1/100th of a second. Another problem was that the video player did not have suitable slow motion view facility.

The first problem was soon solved when I developed math for predicting accurate finishing times upto 1/100th of a second (see Gosavi's formula for accurate timing at http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/s...2&postcount=35 ) but the slow motion video was something that frustrated all attempts at further research.

Luckily, I came across XingPlayer (a chinese video player software which was later aquired by Real Player) and discovered that it could be set for frame count and each frame would be equal to 0.04 second or 25th part of a second. That really was a Godsend, and I renewed my reserach about the stride of a galloping horse. Soon however, I (and my assistants) got tired of counting strides, and, although we had restricted our reserach only to the first four finishers in most cases, some horses would go out of the camera view and create problem for an accurate count.

That led me to further research (I must admit laziness was the greatest motive) and, after nearly 3 years of extensive calculations (I filled some 400 pages of a ledger) finally developed math that would give me a reasonably accurate figure of R (average "Reach" or length of a horse's stride) and T (average "Time" taken by a horse for one stride) if I could just "chart" a runner for even a furlong in a race. These figures, however, would be approximate, but they served the purpose of predicting the "optimum trip distance for a horse" to a great extent as the k factor range (see the word file uploaded by PA in an earlier message) is quite a broad spectrum so room for error is very low.

As I have PM'ed you, three VCD's are on way, which are time-coded (for 1/100th of a second). You can check the veracity of all my claims in this post, or even about the "accurate timings" formula. You may take out copies of the CD's (the copyright is not applicable) and share with any PA board members if they wish to do any independent research about any aspect, or want to individually verify my claims.
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Last edited by speculus; 05-31-2006 at 12:45 PM.
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