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Thread: Good Magic
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Old 03-07-2018, 04:24 PM   #34
Robert Fischer
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Good Magic: Still an 'A/B' ??

Quote:
Originally Posted by PowerUpPaynter View Post
pull the juvenile out of his past performances and what does it look like? Id expect more for a million dollar horse with a million dollar pedigree.

How did we have him in the Juvenile?

I had him as one of several 'A's. My reasoning that day was that the favorite was Bolt D'oro, and that favorite had both some questions and a really bad post.
I used Good Magic, Bolt, and a couple/few others as an 'A'.
Someone could even justify using Good Magic as a 'B'. The main idea is that he was 'one of the contenders'.

He happened to win the Juvenile. That win kind of reinforced/justified the opinion that he was one of the good horses and could be one of several 'A's in a top 3yo race. As cool a horse as he is, and as good a trainer as he has, and even as cool as his name is, - I don't think he was suddenly to be considered a dominant Triple Crown winner.

Derby futures opened, and he was a (the?) favorite, based on being the best 'logical' known quantity.

I have a FB friend who got in line in LV and bought some futures on Justify @ 100-1. Haven't checked but I'd assume that the current or next updates will have Good Magic and
Justify rather close in odds, so he got an overlay. If he happened to buy a bunch or had the inclination to sell, he could 'book' the Justify futures and still hold enough for a score.

We all saw the Fountain of Youth. More questions than answers. If we 'extrapolate' the slow pace, then the winner and place horse are in doubt, and Good Magic, Machismo, and Marconi are all upgrades.
However, - 'extrapolation' is always a worse value than a 'known' truth.

I don't think Good Magic did so terrible as to not be the same 'one of several A's' type of horse. Or if you love another horse in the next race, maybe Good Magic is a 'B' and the horse you like is the lone 'A'.
A crude comparison may be someone like Cloud Computing from 2017. A very nice horse for Chad Brown. Didn't win every race or win the Triple Crown, but he happened to be a nice score for his backers on Preakness day.
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