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Thread: Justify
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Old 02-20-2018, 12:43 PM   #26
dasch
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Join Date: Jun 2010
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dasch View Post
I crunch the numbers(using pace and trip) race by race during the card assigning a number to each race. At the end of the day I see how things match up against each other but ALWAYS weigh the individual race number more than the "overall" as many things can cause variations race to race.

This particular race was the 1st dirt race of the day and crunching came up with 2 different variants, 1 being about where TF & Beyer has it and the other number lower. Things that happened later in the day(this is pretty much what you asked me but excuse me for not explaining in detail) gave me 95% confidence that the lower number is correct. Don't get me wrong it is still a strong win even at the lower number.
To be a little more precise, the number I ended up with(and again will say am very confident in) was equivalent to a win in a Santa Anita 3&up Alw2x, a VERY nice race for a debuting 3yo just not freaky.
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