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Old 02-07-2018, 11:05 PM   #7
betovernetcapper
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If your just looking at the horse's last race, you could make the case that they were similar & the odds made no sense. If you were to look at their entire career, it's a different story. In each of their 2nd races they were entered for $20,000. The #3 finished 6th beaten 11 lengths & the #4 finished 2nd by a length & a 1/2. The #3 has raced in this same type of company 13 times with 2 wins, 3 places & one show, being off the board 7 times. The #4 has raced 5 times with 2 wins & 2 seconds, with it's lone off the board finish 4th by a length & a 1/2.
The #3 seems to have little to no ability to rate and it's chances of getting a clear lead with the #4 & #6 in the race are kind of remote. If you throw into that mix a weak pedigree & a cold trainer, the ML odds seem more rational.
This is not to say that the #4 is the likely winner. Bob Baffert's horse from the one hole is ratable as is #2. In the event of a early speed meltdown, either could take it at the end.
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Last edited by betovernetcapper; 02-07-2018 at 11:12 PM. Reason: spelling
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