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Old 02-07-2018, 09:19 PM   #6
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Join Date: Feb 2003
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Rep Power: 21 GMB@BP is a jewel in the roughGMB@BP is a jewel in the roughGMB@BP is a jewel in the rough
Hey, cant knock anyone for looking at value, and as you point out there is not too much separating their last race.

Just in terms of handicapping it though I see a few issues for the 3

The 4 is faster than the 3 horse early, shown with the 109 pace figure and the 3 pretty much needs the lead. The 4 also comes from a much more competent barn. Now its a morning line so they may be a tad closer.

Now if these are the only two speeds and somehow the 4 doesnt break then its game on, and if you are getting 5x value maybe that is worth it. I just dont like taking chances on breaks and stuff.

What looks like a much more probably scenario is that 3 and 4 may do each other in, and maybe there is another value horse who is there to capitalize. I dont have the PP for the race and am not playing or would make more of a full analysis.

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