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The spreadsheet is protected, but not password protected. So you, can unprotect and unhide everything. I just protect it so the formulas aren't deleted.
I'll give a quick synopsis...
Any horse within 7 points is considered a contender.
I use field size and the number of contenders to get the expected percentage that the winner will come from among my contenders. So, if there is a 10 horse field with 4 contenders, I take (1 + 4/10) / 2, which is 70%.
All the contenders are rated based on the top. The highest contender is assigned a 10, everyone else based off of that, so the lowest would be a 3.
I total all the points, then divide by the expected win % of the contenders. Then, I divide each contenders points into this new total to get his expected win %, convert it to fair odds, and then calculate bet odds from the fair odds.
So here is an example, to keep it simple, I'll use a 6 horse field with the following ratings:
1-80 2-75 3-84 4-72 5-65 6-86
So, the 6 is top with 86, the 1 is a contender with 80, and the 3 is a contender with 84. The other 3 all fall below the 7 point cutoff.
Now, I convert the ratings as described above. The 6 becomes a 10 as top, the 4 becomes an 8, and the 1 becomes a 4.
I then total up the ratings, 10 + 8 + 4 = 22.
I then calculate expected contender win percentage (1 + 3/6) / 2 = .75
I then divide 22 by .75 to get a total of 29.333. This accounts for the non-contenders.
Now, I just divide each horse into this total.
6 = 10 / 29.333 = 34% = 1.9 fair odds
4 = 8 / 29.333 = 27% = 2.7 fair odds
1 = 4 / 29.333 = 14% = 6.3 fair odds
Further, the 1 would not get bet odds because his fair odds are less than his natural shot of winning in a 6 horse field.
Little long winded, hope it helps!
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