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Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 06-05-2018, 11:33 AM
Replies: 14
Views: 980
Posted By Mc990
Quite a few assertions in here. I'll make a few...

Quite a few assertions in here. I'll make a few too... Bravazo's odds will not be commensurate with his chances. That tends to happen when horses outrun their odds in triple crown races.

He's...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 06-04-2018, 05:22 PM
Replies: 14
Views: 980
Posted By Mc990
I think he'll be the biggest underlay in the...

I think he'll be the biggest underlay in the race... and that's saying something
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 06-01-2018, 09:04 AM
Replies: 94
Views: 5,597
Posted By Mc990
If you're of that opinion, how does that shape...

If you're of that opinion, how does that shape your view of the horse for his next start on a 3 week turnaround? Was it a taxing race? Too taxing?

I'm not quite sure how to quantify the quality of...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-29-2018, 01:53 PM
Replies: 90
Views: 4,367
Posted By Mc990
To me it's a game of percentages... so I can't...

To me it's a game of percentages... so I can't say I expect a certain result given the race is a single "trial".

I think he's better than 50% to run at least his derby race

Separate from...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-29-2018, 01:37 PM
Replies: 90
Views: 4,367
Posted By Mc990
I didn't say he was even money... I said he was...

I didn't say he was even money... I said he was even money if he got back to his Wood (maybe slightly better than that actually).

Right now I'd make him 7/2 at worst and yes I expect him to be a...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-29-2018, 01:11 PM
Replies: 90
Views: 4,367
Posted By Mc990
A little surprised VR isn't getting more...

A little surprised VR isn't getting more attention. Think he's extremely live here... for more reasons than pedigree

His derby race could be enough to get it done and a return to his Wood makes...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-22-2018, 12:12 PM
Replies: 73
Views: 9,136
Posted By Mc990
Yes, that is true but at that point they'd both...

Yes, that is true but at that point they'd both be value in the win pool as well and it shouldn't be implied that the value was in the double because it returned a high multiple of the investment.
...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-22-2018, 11:53 AM
Replies: 73
Views: 9,136
Posted By Mc990
Those double combos were underlaid and they'd be...

Those double combos were underlaid and they'd be underlaid if they ran the races again tomorrow. Let's try not to be too results oriented... I know it's difficult. If a horse is underlaid in the win...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-14-2018, 02:46 PM
Replies: 149
Views: 8,718
Posted By Mc990
Wide.

Wide.
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-14-2018, 02:30 PM
Replies: 149
Views: 8,718
Posted By Mc990
I'm curious to see the draw but I have to...

I'm curious to see the draw but I have to envision Good Magic getting a similar trip to last year's winner...

It's not like Justify has a huge margin for error over GM. An overconfident ride...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-13-2018, 10:50 PM
Replies: 81
Views: 3,423
Posted By Mc990
I understand your point. I understand your...

I understand your point. I understand your analogy. It all makes sense.

I stand by my statement though that if you are making accurate figures (or accurate on average), then they should hold up...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-13-2018, 02:48 PM
Replies: 81
Views: 3,423
Posted By Mc990
Innumerate? Probably the wrong choice of words...

Innumerate? Probably the wrong choice of words consider the subsequent point you attempted to make.
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-13-2018, 09:49 AM
Replies: 81
Views: 3,423
Posted By Mc990
Who did they favor? I suppose Justify but that's...

Who did they favor? I suppose Justify but that's not really relevant. They're not a tout service, they make speed figures.

As it relates to horses getting faster/slower, Ragozin numbers haven't...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-11-2018, 04:50 PM
Replies: 81
Views: 3,423
Posted By Mc990
TRACK COMPOSITION IS DIFFERENT THAN IT USED TO...

TRACK COMPOSITION IS DIFFERENT THAN IT USED TO BE.

Wow.
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-11-2018, 12:24 PM
Replies: 81
Views: 3,423
Posted By Mc990
I would think that "race spacing" would produce...

I would think that "race spacing" would produce better overall performance/speed figures.... same thing with lasix
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-09-2018, 08:57 PM
Replies: 81
Views: 3,423
Posted By Mc990
I think a better question to ask here is "are the...

I think a better question to ask here is "are the beyer figures broken"?

Applying even a modicum of critical thinking will lead a horseplayer to the conclusion that horses are getting faster.
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-02-2018, 11:22 AM
Replies: 35
Views: 1,890
Posted By Mc990
How much ground loss are you penciling in for...

How much ground loss are you penciling in for Vino with Velazquez aboard? He could run the best figure (but most likely won't) and be out of the money....
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-30-2018, 09:52 AM
Replies: 181
Views: 6,958
Posted By Mc990
I don't know about "measuring stick" but Bolt is...

I don't know about "measuring stick" but Bolt is the horse you're supposed to bet here... the exact same figures with a better narrative and he'd be vying for favoritism.... as it stands, his form is...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-25-2018, 07:40 PM
Replies: 55
Views: 2,997
Posted By Mc990
Haven't seen them all yet on Ragozin yet... "1"...

Haven't seen them all yet on Ragozin yet... "1" on TG
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-24-2018, 01:26 PM
Replies: 58
Views: 2,895
Posted By Mc990
Just one more fact.... there is no run up in...

Just one more fact.... there is no run up in Meydan, so adjust accordingly

Btw I still think he's a toss
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-24-2018, 01:21 PM
Replies: 50
Views: 2,778
Posted By Mc990
Or you could make the argument that his huge Met...

Or you could make the argument that his huge Met figure is the precise reason he lost to those horses later in the year...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-24-2018, 07:15 AM
Replies: 58
Views: 2,895
Posted By Mc990
Based on what? Based on the fact that they've...

Based on what? Based on the fact that they've been the fastest horses of this crop. The race doesn't always go to the swift, but that's the way it should be bet. Bolt is shaping up to be the biggest...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-23-2018, 01:41 PM
Replies: 58
Views: 2,895
Posted By Mc990
Just because your last sentence is true, it does...

Just because your last sentence is true, it does not preclude Bolt and Justify from being standouts in this race... someone capable of putting together those first two intelligent paragraphs (even...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-23-2018, 12:58 PM
Replies: 58
Views: 2,895
Posted By Mc990
Differing opinions are what makes this game great...

Differing opinions are what makes this game great but I strongly believe you have to play Mend to bounce... that was a big figure. Strictly a percentage play. If he were 25-1, maybe I'd be willing to...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-23-2018, 10:42 AM
Replies: 58
Views: 2,895
Posted By Mc990
Overthinking

Bolt and Justify lay over the field on Timeform and they look solid on TG and Ragozin as well... (even better if you're inclined to toss the horses who look to bounce).

I'm just amazed at the...
Showing results 1 to 25 of 282

 
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