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Search took 0.01 seconds. Search: Posts Made By: Luckycreed
Forum: General Racing Discussion 12-13-2015, 11:16 AM
Replies: 23
Views: 3,242
Posted By Luckycreed
The other big advantage racing has over sports...

The other big advantage racing has over sports for the serious player is racing has the tote and the tote will always welcome your money,

Sportsbooks will welcome your money if you are a loser,...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 12-13-2015, 10:53 AM
Replies: 23
Views: 3,242
Posted By Luckycreed
What form of gambling is not incredibly hard to...

What form of gambling is not incredibly hard to win at long term?Please tell me I am desperate to know.

Racing needs to find it's niche in the gambling market and play to it's strengths and single...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 11-30-2015, 05:54 AM
Replies: 112
Views: 9,054
Posted By Luckycreed
As for the idea the game can survive on big...

As for the idea the game can survive on big sophisticated players,that is a delusion.

Big sophisticated players rely on vast amounts of mug money in the pools to make their business model...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 11-30-2015, 05:27 AM
Replies: 112
Views: 9,054
Posted By Luckycreed
The issue is if you are relying on the internet...

The issue is if you are relying on the internet to save a declining product you are doomed.

To bet on horse racing via the internet you need to be motivated to type it into your search engine...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 11-29-2015, 11:27 AM
Replies: 112
Views: 9,054
Posted By Luckycreed
Ultracapper Nobody owns the athletes that those...

Ultracapper Nobody owns the athletes that those team owners employ.Horse Racing needs owners,no owners no horses, no horses no racing.


Also owners money makes up a big chunk of the betting...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 08-19-2015, 11:59 AM
Replies: 232
Views: 23,222
Posted By Luckycreed
You might think the data is meaningless but...

You might think the data is meaningless but others here might be interested in thinking about it.

Those figures I provided come from a tote market with a takeout a fraction over 16% after...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 08-19-2015, 09:12 AM
Replies: 232
Views: 23,222
Posted By Luckycreed
Overlay is a purely subjective term, meaningless...

Overlay is a purely subjective term, meaningless really, one mans overlay is another mans unders.

What can't be denied is the shorter priced horses are the closer they come to breaking even over a...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 08-19-2015, 02:44 AM
Replies: 232
Views: 23,222
Posted By Luckycreed
Never met a serious player who invests much of...

Never met a serious player who invests much of their money in longshots, not saying they don't exist but I have never met one.

The one market inefficiency that no one can dispute exists is that...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 08-16-2015, 12:14 PM
Replies: 336
Views: 27,734
Posted By Luckycreed
Andy - Believe it I used to work for hum as a...

Andy - Believe it I used to work for hum as a video guy (one of many) although I never met him.

But do not take my word for it google Australian Taxation office vs David Walsh (one of his...
Forum: Handicapper's Corner 08-03-2015, 10:33 AM
Replies: 35
Views: 5,925
Posted By Luckycreed
No their not dumb just plain greedy so they will...

No their not dumb just plain greedy so they will not back long odds on horses, or try to find a reason they will get beat, you see it from time to time in three year old stakes races all over the...
Forum: Handicapper's Corner 08-02-2015, 12:10 PM
Replies: 35
Views: 5,925
Posted By Luckycreed
Don't underestimate the stupidly overbet second...

Don't underestimate the stupidly overbet second and third favourite when really they have little chance of rolling the fav angle.Horses that go around at 1-3 that would have to have a cardiac arrest...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 08-02-2015, 11:44 AM
Replies: 17
Views: 2,308
Posted By Luckycreed
Very good points Robert, I would only hedge in...

Very good points Robert, I would only hedge in the most extreme of circumstances, it defeats the point of playing big exotics in the first place.

The money you spend hedging over time would be...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 07-31-2015, 11:30 AM
Replies: 28
Views: 2,667
Posted By Luckycreed
Yes and part of that artistry is admitting when a...

Yes and part of that artistry is admitting when a race or a day of racing has simply got you beat and you can't get your head around it.

When I was working doing video they used to get us to give...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 07-29-2015, 12:08 PM
Replies: 68
Views: 6,941
Posted By Luckycreed
You bet any horse in the race that is a longer...

You bet any horse in the race that is a longer price than you think it should be, it's as simple as that.

Of course given you are betting into a 117% market, in most races you will struggle to...
Forum: Handicapper's Corner 07-24-2015, 01:05 PM
Replies: 79
Views: 9,417
Posted By Luckycreed
Also remember wherever you go in the world the...

Also remember wherever you go in the world the average player has the market to guide him, the average player just follows the money je has fifty on a 1-1 shot and next race ge gas a fiver on a 20-1...
Forum: Handicapper's Corner 07-24-2015, 12:46 PM
Replies: 79
Views: 9,417
Posted By Luckycreed
Back on the topic of this thread racing is about...

Back on the topic of this thread racing is about opinions but not just that, it is about putting your money were your mouth is.

In life you will constantly here people making irrational bellicose...
Forum: Handicapper's Corner 07-24-2015, 12:15 PM
Replies: 79
Views: 9,417
Posted By Luckycreed
Hi mate,luckycreed was before my time but he was...

Hi mate,luckycreed was before my time but he was (still is) my mothers favourite horse.He won the 1970 Miracle mile as well as loads of other races and mum won some serious coin betting him.
Forum: Handicapper's Corner 07-21-2015, 10:31 AM
Replies: 71
Views: 8,287
Posted By Luckycreed
The marketplace puts a big weighting on a horses...

The marketplace puts a big weighting on a horses performance at it's most recent start. The one exception is when a horse is first up from a long lay off, then it tends to look at it's record coming...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 07-17-2015, 09:20 AM
Replies: 67
Views: 7,685
Posted By Luckycreed
You need to really understand the class system or...

You need to really understand the class system or grading system if you like because that is the foundation stone on which the sport is built.The aim of the industry is to provide competitive racing...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 07-15-2015, 10:50 AM
Replies: 41
Views: 3,022
Posted By Luckycreed
You would be suprised where a combination of...

You would be suprised where a combination of greed and stupidity can take people.

Down here in Australia one case from early last decade springs to mind.The Gleeson stable were the number one...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 07-12-2015, 01:24 PM
Replies: 18
Views: 2,150
Posted By Luckycreed
No sorry you are wrong.If I make up a book on a...

No sorry you are wrong.If I make up a book on a two horse race at 105% my edge is 2.5% on each runner if that is the way I choose to frame it.Of course I may have an opinion, or have trouble taking...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 07-06-2015, 06:55 AM
Replies: 8
Views: 1,297
Posted By Luckycreed
It was at Pakenham actually, on the radio today...

It was at Pakenham actually, on the radio today he claimed the racetrack CEO told him to scratch his horses and go home after he complained about the catering so that is what he did.
Forum: General Racing Discussion 07-05-2015, 11:01 AM
Replies: 18
Views: 2,150
Posted By Luckycreed
US racing desperately needs to find a way to get...

US racing desperately needs to find a way to get field sizes up, so it can offer better value to gamblers.

Head to head sportsbettiing usually offers 104 - 105% markets, people think this is good...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 06-28-2015, 12:05 PM
Replies: 36
Views: 4,558
Posted By Luckycreed
We don't have claiming down here, so I would find...

We don't have claiming down here, so I would find it impossible because I don't understand the culture of it,One thing I guess is there is plenty of it so if you are number crunching you will have...
Forum: Handicapper's Corner 06-28-2015, 09:48 AM
Replies: 345
Views: 19,683
Posted By Luckycreed
You don't automatically give a horse credit for a...

You don't automatically give a horse credit for a wide trip it's not that primitive.You give horses credit when they do things that most horses on the day couldn't do.

For example if horses...
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