Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Search Forums
Reload this Page Search Results

Home Register FAQDonate Roster Calendar Forum Today's Posts

Page 1 of 2 1 2
Showing results 1 to 25 of 50
Search took 0.01 seconds. Search: Posts Made By: snoadog
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-14-2011, 08:18 PM
Replies: 115
Views: 8,598
Posted By snoadog
Aaaaarrrrg!!!!

Okay I have been restraining myself long enough.

BCOURTNEY. In post 35 you cite the Binomial Formula:



In post 54 you state about it:
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-14-2011, 06:31 PM
Replies: 115
Views: 8,598
Posted By snoadog
Careful Mike, somone is about to bring his Ns out...

Careful Mike, somone is about to bring his Ns out again :)
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-14-2011, 04:26 PM
Replies: 115
Views: 8,598
Posted By snoadog
I'm certain there are many instances in...

I'm certain there are many instances in discussions of probability/statistics where you cannot trust your intuition, but this is not one of them.
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-14-2011, 12:14 PM
Replies: 115
Views: 8,598
Posted By snoadog
Are you are trying to tell me that the likelyhood...

Are you are trying to tell me that the likelyhood of 80 wins in a row out of 80 tries is greater than 80 wins in a row out of n>80 tries, despite the extra tries n>than 80 affords me??? Only common...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-13-2011, 11:07 PM
Replies: 115
Views: 8,598
Posted By snoadog
Well okay... but I don't use the 99.14% to...

Well okay... but I don't use the 99.14% to conclude he is a spectacularly unusual handicapper. I use it to conclude that 80 in a row is a spectacularly unusual event.
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-13-2011, 09:57 PM
Replies: 115
Views: 8,598
Posted By snoadog
I don't pretend to know the answer to this one,...

I don't pretend to know the answer to this one, but my intuitive guess is that if this handicappng god has been no more or less luckier than usual then 80 in a row is likely the result of a 99.14%...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-12-2011, 05:28 AM
Replies: 115
Views: 8,598
Posted By snoadog
I have no issue with the binomial probability...

I have no issue with the binomial probability distribution formula. Of course it is correct and sound but it does not predict the probability of w wins in a row, it predicts the probability of w wins...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-12-2011, 03:12 AM
Replies: 115
Views: 8,598
Posted By snoadog
A trivial example: N=3, W=2, P=.5. Probability of...

A trivial example: N=3, W=2, P=.5. Probability of 2 wins in 3 trials is 0.375 according to the formula. This is correct. Now, If you write out the win/loss trials.

1)WWW ...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-11-2011, 11:34 PM
Replies: 115
Views: 8,598
Posted By snoadog
It was an 80 bet parlay, therefore w = n. As soon...

It was an 80 bet parlay, therefore w = n. As soon as the first loss occurs the parlay is over. Also the formula you cite gives the probability of exactly w occurences over n trials not w occurences...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-11-2011, 10:47 AM
Replies: 115
Views: 8,598
Posted By snoadog
A 99% strike rate has almost a 50/50 chance of...

A 99% strike rate has almost a 50/50 chance of achieving 80 in a row.
Forum: HandiFast Handicapping Software 01-20-2011, 12:49 AM
Replies: 13
Views: 2,326
Posted By snoadog
Alright, my mistake, I have been neglecting to...

Alright, my mistake, I have been neglecting to put a value in the batch process cell. It seems to be working now. thanks a bunch.
Forum: HandiFast Handicapping Software 01-18-2011, 10:25 PM
Replies: 13
Views: 2,326
Posted By snoadog
Raybo My ZZOUTPUT.xls file is blank. ...

Raybo

My ZZOUTPUT.xls file is blank.

Not to worry though, I will try and find a 2003 copy of excel.

Last year I taught myself some VBA by getting Excel to import a Bris PP data single file...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 01-18-2011, 05:01 PM
Replies: 188
Views: 35,111
Posted By snoadog
Here's my layman's explanation. DF is equal...

Here's my layman's explanation.

DF is equal to least amount cells in the table you must know before you can deduce what the remaining cell values must be. In the win, place, show table you already...
Forum: HandiFast Handicapping Software 01-16-2011, 10:15 PM
Replies: 13
Views: 2,326
Posted By snoadog
Opening the ZZOUTPUT file

When I click Import Database I get the following error:

'Error '1004
To paste all cells from a Excel worksheet into the current worksheet,
you must paste into the first cell (A1 or R1C1).

I...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 01-16-2011, 12:35 AM
Replies: 188
Views: 35,111
Posted By snoadog
Excel's CHITEST

Just to make sure this horse is dead:

I was monkeying around in excel and found the CHITEST function.
In Actor's example above, It is a measure of how certain you can be of the win(loss) rate's...
Forum: Handicapping Software 11-26-2010, 11:06 PM
Replies: 23
Views: 3,347
Posted By snoadog
btw here's the link:...

btw here's the link: http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/static.cgi?page=drfsff
Forum: Handicapping Software 11-26-2010, 10:57 PM
Replies: 23
Views: 3,347
Posted By snoadog
Nope, that one's not in there as far as I know.

Nope, that one's not in there as far as I know.
Forum: General Racing Discussion 11-26-2010, 01:50 PM
Replies: 39
Views: 3,285
Posted By snoadog
I know you are all going to hate me but the six...

I know you are all going to hate me but the six words Dave Johnson is famous for is really what sealed the deal for me. I was a kid when Genuine Risk won the derby, I thought all races were going to...
Forum: Handicapping Software 11-26-2010, 12:55 AM
Replies: 23
Views: 3,347
Posted By snoadog
Looks like the date of a trainer change

Looks like the date of a trainer change
Forum: General Racing Discussion 11-07-2010, 11:08 PM
Replies: 18
Views: 1,727
Posted By snoadog
As an aside, I thought Mike's observations on how...

As an aside, I thought Mike's observations on how the switch to dirt effected Z was the most logical thing I've heard on the surfaces so far. I'm no expert on synth. vs dirt/speed vs closer debate,...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 11-07-2010, 07:45 PM
Replies: 19
Views: 1,865
Posted By snoadog
lol, the best part: "He's doesn't mean that about...

lol, the best part: "He's doesn't mean that about Goldikova"
Forum: Handicapping Software 08-23-2010, 02:55 PM
Replies: 5
Views: 1,241
Posted By snoadog
printing w/Brisnet's PP Generator

I am having trouble printing 2-sided pages with Brisnet's free PP Generator using the 1 file data DRFs. maybe it's printer drivers or Vista. Do others have this problem too?
Forum: General Racing Discussion 08-22-2010, 08:29 PM
Replies: 2
Views: 600
Posted By snoadog
I really wanted to see Jim Meyaard enjoy his...

I really wanted to see Jim Meyaard enjoy his victory, he was obviously too distraught when his other horse went down. It seems all involved in the mishap are okay, so far. It was nice to see the...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 08-20-2010, 11:26 AM
Replies: 41
Views: 2,820
Posted By snoadog
Has anyone ever thought: "Jeez did that jock have...

Has anyone ever thought: "Jeez did that jock have to urge his horse that hard?..... Was it really necessary for him to win by 20 lengths?"
Forum: General Racing Discussion 08-19-2010, 02:43 PM
Replies: 9
Views: 855
Posted By snoadog
Ya, I only ever used the 20 cent wager for...

Ya, I only ever used the 20 cent wager for Canadian tracks, I just assumed after a few tries that no U.S. tracks allow <$1:00 wagers from Canucks.
Showing results 1 to 25 of 50
Page 1 of 2 1 2

 
Forum Jump
» Advertisement
» Current Polls
Wh deserves to be the favorite? (last 4 figures)
» View Poll Results
» Comment On This Poll
» This Poll Has 32 Replies
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:48 AM.

PaceAdvantage.com - Archive - Privacy Statement - Terms of Service - Top

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.