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Search took 0.01 seconds. Search: Posts Made By: Twenty Seven
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 04-20-2013, 03:28 AM
Replies: 107
Views: 9,782
Posted By Twenty Seven
The lower the payout, the worse off a winner is...

The lower the payout, the worse off a winner is after breakage. Big difference between $78.39 down to $78.20, and $2.39 down to $2.20.
Forum: General Racing Discussion 04-20-2013, 03:19 AM
Replies: 36
Views: 3,565
Posted By Twenty Seven
But it's not either/or. There are plenty of...

But it's not either/or.

There are plenty of position takers in the moving win pools at Betfair. I do both. If there's great value in betting a particular horse or horses to win or lose, it's often...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 04-19-2013, 03:15 AM
Replies: 36
Views: 3,565
Posted By Twenty Seven
Liquidity on the prime hours -- after English...

Liquidity on the prime hours -- after English racing is finished and before they pass out, about 4 hours in total -- is still excellent, often about $100,000 a race, traded (so, $50,000 total for one...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 04-18-2013, 04:53 PM
Replies: 41
Views: 3,271
Posted By Twenty Seven
Ahhh, but he said any race. Surely among 20 or so...

Ahhh, but he said any race. Surely among 20 or so tracks (x 9 races per track), one could find at least one 1/5 or 2/5 shot. The best of the lowest odds-on would get my pick.

Then again, I like...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 04-18-2013, 04:50 AM
Replies: 130
Views: 9,636
Posted By Twenty Seven
The exacta drop down, just like all major drops...

The exacta drop down, just like all major drops at and after the off, is definitely a major problem.

It's exactly why a smart bettor is going to hit that supposed $100 payout. This game is...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 04-18-2013, 04:23 AM
Replies: 107
Views: 9,782
Posted By Twenty Seven
First off, the takeout on a horizontal wager is...

First off, the takeout on a horizontal wager is only charged once. For example, in a P4, you're paying that 25% one time, whereas in the same four race sequence in a win parlay, you're paying the...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 04-16-2013, 07:52 AM
Replies: 107
Views: 9,782
Posted By Twenty Seven
Important additional notes, MightBeSosa: ...

Important additional notes, MightBeSosa:

Those prices are set when you take them (or when another bettor takes your offer). No need to worry about odds drops a minute later, including after the...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-26-2013, 07:15 PM
Replies: 23
Views: 2,136
Posted By Twenty Seven
You haven't understood a single thing I've taken...

You haven't understood a single thing I've taken the patience to go through in my previous posts. It doesn't matter how many races he's incorporating? The example I've used is an illustrative one...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-25-2013, 09:01 PM
Replies: 23
Views: 2,136
Posted By Twenty Seven
I'm unclear on your example. Do you mean he makes...

I'm unclear on your example. Do you mean he makes four separate P4 wagers, which would incorporate 16 races, or are you saying he is making one P4 bet, which would be one sequence of four races...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-25-2013, 06:57 PM
Replies: 23
Views: 2,136
Posted By Twenty Seven
And you can also win 1 or 2 of 4 and go home a...

And you can also win 1 or 2 of 4 and go home a loser (much more of a reality playing only the one or two horses most use in win betting). Also, in a P4, if I lose in 2 or 3 races, I'm only dinged...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-25-2013, 05:12 PM
Replies: 23
Views: 2,136
Posted By Twenty Seven
That's beside the point I'm making. Of course...

That's beside the point I'm making. Of course it's not the optimal wagering strategy to parlay four win bets if for no other reason than you'll have stronger opinions on one or two races than on all...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-25-2013, 01:46 AM
Replies: 23
Views: 2,136
Posted By Twenty Seven
My comparisons are based on the average bettor....

My comparisons are based on the average bettor. That is, one who loses exactly what the takeout figures to be. Most bettors fall in line with this crowded area on the bell curve. But even the winning...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-25-2013, 01:33 AM
Replies: 23
Views: 2,136
Posted By Twenty Seven
Yes. Why? ( In response to AndyC)

Yes. Why?

( In response to AndyC)
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-25-2013, 12:46 AM
Replies: 23
Views: 2,136
Posted By Twenty Seven
Let's use a more simplified example, for purposes...

Let's use a more simplified example, for purposes of illustration. (This is adapted from Steven Crist's Exotic Betting.)

If the takeout on every race (on win betting, in this example) is 20%, then...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-24-2013, 11:53 PM
Replies: 23
Views: 2,136
Posted By Twenty Seven
I don't have the patience or time to relay all of...

I don't have the patience or time to relay all of the particular math involved, but think of a pick four race as a four horse win parlay, which, in fact, it is. Now with traditional win betting,...
Forum: Handicapper's Corner 02-24-2013, 11:40 PM
Replies: 37
Views: 3,966
Posted By Twenty Seven
Just caught up with the latest questions and...

Just caught up with the latest questions and answers on definitions of the two terms. My take is that 'specialist' refers to a certain angle or angles, or to one specific approach (speed OR pace OR...
Forum: Handicapper's Corner 02-24-2013, 11:34 PM
Replies: 37
Views: 3,966
Posted By Twenty Seven
thaskalos, this is the biggest issue with pick...

thaskalos, this is the biggest issue with pick 4s, the "problem" race. (If there are more than one of them in a series, I pass.) But the way I approach it is to use it as a bridge race, meaning I...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-24-2013, 11:11 PM
Replies: 23
Views: 2,136
Posted By Twenty Seven
Obviously, the lower the takeout, the better. But...

Obviously, the lower the takeout, the better. But many people have the misconception that a 23% takeout on a pick 3, 4 , or 5 equals a 23% takeout on a win bet, or an exactor or superfecta. Wrong. A...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-24-2013, 11:01 PM
Replies: 6
Views: 875
Posted By Twenty Seven
As for specific daily biases, there are few. I'm...

As for specific daily biases, there are few. I'm sure the stable weather has a lot to do with that.
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-24-2013, 10:59 PM
Replies: 6
Views: 875
Posted By Twenty Seven
Early speed does well, but so do pressers....

Early speed does well, but so do pressers. Stalkers can win if a pace gets heated or if the best horse has that profile. In two turn tilts, speed isn't quite as important. In other words, pretty much...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 01-30-2013, 07:23 PM
Replies: 65
Views: 7,740
Posted By Twenty Seven
NO one can explain it, not even Betfair's...

NO one can explain it, not even Betfair's customer reps.:D

Bizarre that they use an impossibly complicated system to calculate whether or not you pay it that week. Bettors are angry enough at it...
Forum: Handicapper's Corner 01-29-2013, 10:33 PM
Replies: 53
Views: 4,874
Posted By Twenty Seven
But by "better off", do you mean "profitable"?...

But by "better off", do you mean "profitable"? Because without rebates, and in today's brutally competitive environment, you have to overcome the single race takeout of at least 16% just to break...
Forum: Handicapper's Corner 01-29-2013, 08:48 PM
Replies: 1,146
Views: 75,700
Posted By Twenty Seven
Ah hahahaha ! OK, now I know this is a...

Ah hahahaha !

OK, now I know this is a wind-up. Good job.
Forum: Handicapper's Corner 01-29-2013, 07:57 PM
Replies: 53
Views: 4,874
Posted By Twenty Seven
This is my experience as well. Luckily, I can...

This is my experience as well. Luckily, I can trade on Betfair, which is where most of my profits accrue. (other than that, I focus on P3s and P4s.)

Andy Beyer said it back in the early 80s in The...
Forum: Handicapper's Corner 01-29-2013, 07:32 PM
Replies: 1,146
Views: 75,700
Posted By Twenty Seven
There are conflicting views in the above. I agree...

There are conflicting views in the above. I agree with your post, except for your assertion that the 11/1 odds would be in its favor. Again, I'm just looking at these odds as a model. Without...
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