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Search took 0.06 seconds. Search: Posts Made By: singunner
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 06-21-2008, 12:58 PM
Replies: 11
Views: 1,323
Posted By singunner
The idea of "back-fitting" is something every...

The idea of "back-fitting" is something every statistician in their right mind will tell you to avoid. We take specific precautions to AVOID this sort of thing. It's sometimes referred to as...
Forum: Off Topic - General 06-15-2008, 11:25 AM
Replies: 10
Views: 749
Posted By singunner
I have turned 600 into almost 1000, then down to...

I have turned 600 into almost 1000, then down to 280, now back to 500 over 2 weeks. The results fit neatly within the variance of my program's prior results, and there's no guarantee 600 will be...
Forum: Off Topic - General 06-15-2008, 02:39 AM
Replies: 10
Views: 749
Posted By singunner
I just wanted to bask in a good day for a moment,...

I just wanted to bask in a good day for a moment, but if you want to turn this into a real discussion, I'm all ears. I was fiddling with the insides of my program before I even posted my last reply....
Forum: Off Topic - General 06-15-2008, 02:27 AM
Replies: 10
Views: 749
Posted By singunner
Maybe I should have put this in the handicapping...

Maybe I should have put this in the handicapping forum :P

I did a statistical analysis of 3 years of data with the system I designed, and boxing horses was just the easiest thing that came to...
Forum: Off Topic - General 06-15-2008, 12:28 AM
Replies: 135
Views: 5,651
Posted By singunner
Did you know the state also approves of gays...

Did you know the state also approves of gays going to Heaven? That's right, your government isn't keeping gays out of Heaven. Know why? IT'S YOUR CHURCH'S JOB! This isn't a state issue, it's a...
Forum: Off Topic - General 06-14-2008, 11:58 PM
Replies: 10
Views: 749
Posted By singunner
Greatest Feeling

Just had a great day but didn't wanna pollute the actual handicapping board. Hit a big super early in the day that guaranteed I'd at least break even for the day (I place all my bets in the...
Forum: Advance Deposit Wagering (ADW) 06-14-2008, 09:48 PM
Replies: 112
Views: 8,622
Posted By singunner
This is just like the RIAA's early failure to...

This is just like the RIAA's early failure to embrace iTunes and their constant struggle against all the money Steve Jobs wants to give them. The internet has made brick-and-mortar stores irrelevant...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-03-2008, 06:38 PM
Replies: 100
Views: 7,458
Posted By singunner
I told my mom to bet her to show. I don't know...

I told my mom to bet her to show. I don't know if she'll be able to cash the ticket. :(
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-03-2008, 06:32 PM
Replies: 100
Views: 7,458
Posted By singunner
She took second against a monster. She belonged...

She took second against a monster. She belonged more than 18 other horses.
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-03-2008, 12:59 PM
Replies: 46
Views: 4,643
Posted By singunner
Eight Belles Big Brown Smooth Air Gayego ...

Eight Belles
Big Brown
Smooth Air
Gayego
Colonel John
Cowboy Cal
Court Vision
Bob Black Jack
Recapturetheglory
Tale of Ekati
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 04-23-2008, 12:39 PM
Replies: 3
Views: 1,103
Posted By singunner
Your 50% or 25% question has the same theoretical...

Your 50% or 25% question has the same theoretical return either way, but betting 40 races with less money would likely have less chance of you going broke along the way. It also depends on your win...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 04-13-2008, 11:23 PM
Replies: 17
Views: 2,520
Posted By singunner
But will it blend? The real question is...

But will it blend?

The real question is "Does this information present any practical value?"

Would boxing all horses with this attribute in every race be worthwhile? Or is there some other...
Forum: Advance Deposit Wagering (ADW) 04-08-2008, 02:30 AM
Replies: 42
Views: 4,137
Posted By singunner
If anything, a betting exchange would lend...

If anything, a betting exchange would lend legitimacy to an industry that outsiders largely view as being populated by degenerates. A horse betting exchange is immediately comparable to the NYSE,...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 04-08-2008, 02:00 AM
Replies: 16
Views: 1,641
Posted By singunner
I'm sure there are a lot of people on here who...

I'm sure there are a lot of people on here who could explain this a lot more clearly than myself, but I'll give it a shot.

First, a bit of speculation: The Pick 3 pools are a lot smaller than...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 04-08-2008, 12:01 AM
Replies: 16
Views: 1,641
Posted By singunner
Isn't the answer "It depends on which pool you...

Isn't the answer "It depends on which pool you have the better edge in"?

If you had a positive ROI in both, your win percent is obviously going to be a lot higher in the Win pools, so your higher...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 04-07-2008, 03:46 PM
Replies: 16
Views: 1,988
Posted By singunner
Good catch. This is why I always convert all...

Good catch. This is why I always convert all odds and payouts to $1.

Still, all you have to do is divide those two ROI's by 2. Exacta still had the best payoff vs a 20-horse box.
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 04-07-2008, 03:31 PM
Replies: 16
Views: 1,988
Posted By singunner
ROI breakdown for the Giacomo example: 20...

ROI breakdown for the Giacomo example:

20 Horse Super Box = $864,253.50 / $116,280 = ~7.43
20 Horse Tri Box = $133,134.80 / $6,840 = ~19.46
20 Horse Exacta Box = $9,814.80 / $380 = ~25.83
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 04-07-2008, 02:56 PM
Replies: 16
Views: 1,988
Posted By singunner
If you really wanna play it safe, it'll only cost...

If you really wanna play it safe, it'll only cost you $116,280.
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 04-03-2008, 02:27 PM
Replies: 26
Views: 2,291
Posted By singunner
This is very interesting. So, essentially,...

This is very interesting. So, essentially, without the benefit of a tote board (save the estimated exacta prices), the exacta pools appear to be mirroring win pools? My first question would be...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 04-03-2008, 02:13 PM
Replies: 94
Views: 11,147
Posted By singunner
Half the fun of the boards is finding out the...

Half the fun of the boards is finding out the answer to this exact question!

Since I don't see any mention yet, I have to mention Formula2002. Of course, it's difficult to tell on a forum, but he...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 04-03-2008, 12:24 AM
Replies: 33
Views: 3,861
Posted By singunner
Interesting, but that's a lot simpler concept...

Interesting, but that's a lot simpler concept than my algorithm. I'd be interested in how it compares though. Does anyone know the ROI of mechanically betting that statistic?
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 04-02-2008, 01:31 PM
Replies: 33
Views: 3,861
Posted By singunner
There are very few games in the world where...

There are very few games in the world where twenty out of every thousand can make a long term profit playing them. There are very few games in the world that even offer a way to get back the money...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 04-02-2008, 01:26 AM
Replies: 33
Views: 3,861
Posted By singunner
Seeing how much I've gotten from this board and...

Seeing how much I've gotten from this board and how much I've grown from it, it's not a question of whether I want to become an advertiser, but whether they'll have me.

As for "competitive...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 04-02-2008, 12:59 AM
Replies: 33
Views: 3,861
Posted By singunner
I guess since I'm not selling anything yet, maybe...

I guess since I'm not selling anything yet, maybe the moderators won't get mad at me. Rereading my posts, it sounds like I'm pushing what I've made, but I don't think what I made is the only way to...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 04-02-2008, 12:34 AM
Replies: 33
Views: 3,861
Posted By singunner
I can understand why you feel the field is too...

I can understand why you feel the field is too level, but horse racing has become largely about technology. The thing with technology is that it always seems like it hit a wall, then someone...
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