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Search took 0.13 seconds. Search: Posts Made By: classhandicapper
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion Today, 06:12 PM
Replies: 13
Views: 429
Posted By classhandicapper
Got it. You also need some objective...

Got it.

You also need some objective measurement of the strength of the field to go along with it. You can either look fractions and final time or the quality of the horses in the race...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion Today, 02:00 PM
Replies: 13
Views: 429
Posted By classhandicapper
I'd say horses are more lkely to run back to...

I'd say horses are more lkely to run back to their typically preferred running styles and positions than their prior fractions. The fractions vary depending on the makeup of the field and how many...
Forum: General Racing Discussion Yesterday, 04:32 PM
Replies: 55
Views: 3,401
Posted By classhandicapper
I hear what you are saying, but for me it's the...

I hear what you are saying, but for me it's the opposite. I live near Belmont. The main reason I go to the Haskell is because I can stay on the Jersey shore and have a great long weekend of food and...
Forum: General Racing Discussion Yesterday, 04:24 PM
Replies: 55
Views: 3,401
Posted By classhandicapper
Absolutely I had a great time in town when I...

Absolutely

I had a great time in town when I went to Oaklawn.
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion Yesterday, 04:23 PM
Replies: 10
Views: 668
Posted By classhandicapper
That was my visual impression also. I know less...

That was my visual impression also. I know less than nothing about what the typical fractions are there relative to that final time, how the track was playing, or what the other horses are capable...
Forum: General Racing Discussion Yesterday, 08:01 AM
Replies: 55
Views: 3,401
Posted By classhandicapper
I didn't know much of that early story. ...

I didn't know much of that early story.

I've been saying for a long time that imo the best formula for success going forward will be the tracks that can combine quality racing with it being a...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion Yesterday, 07:40 AM
Replies: 10
Views: 668
Posted By classhandicapper
:ThmbUp: They were probably operating under...

:ThmbUp:

They were probably operating under the assumption she would tire and come back to the pack. It's odd that they would go slower than usual though. Most of the time, you just want the horse...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-14-2024, 11:20 AM
Replies: 2
Views: 255
Posted By classhandicapper
I think he's been in some of the better quality...

I think he's been in some of the better quality preps (which may not be saying a lot). He's been such a deep closer, I'd be more concerned about his early position in a large field and the pace than...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 04-14-2024, 09:24 AM
Replies: 55
Views: 3,401
Posted By classhandicapper
I know we are all racing fans, but I'm having a...

I know we are all racing fans, but I'm having a tough time figuring out why 100s of millions of dollars are being spent on new facilities for an industry that's dying in the US despite 100s of...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 04-13-2024, 10:36 AM
Replies: 3
Views: 475
Posted By classhandicapper
There's a noticeable shift of quality in progress...

There's a noticeable shift of quality in progress from everywhere else to Kentucky, FG and OP with Saratoga being the one major obvious exception and we'll see what happens in CA at DMR longer term. ...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-12-2024, 09:11 AM
Replies: 6
Views: 412
Posted By classhandicapper
Just a Touch ran an interesting race in the...

Just a Touch ran an interesting race in the Bluegrass. He stalked a very fast pace and held well. One could argue he was best that day on a pace adjusted basis. But if you look at all the horses...
Forum: Off Topic - General 04-11-2024, 06:42 PM
Replies: 64
Views: 1,739
Posted By classhandicapper
I have no idea what he's going to get, but I'd...

I have no idea what he's going to get, but I'd bet almost anything he gets more black and Hispanic votes % wise this time than last time or the time before that.

What I have less confidence in...
Forum: Off Topic - General 04-11-2024, 06:36 PM
Replies: 852
Views: 81,364
Posted By classhandicapper
Very sorry to hear about that.

Very sorry to hear about that.
Forum: Off Topic - General 04-11-2024, 06:33 PM
Replies: 852
Views: 81,364
Posted By classhandicapper
CDC says study indicates Covid Vaccines do NOT...

CDC says study indicates Covid Vaccines do NOT cause sudden death from cardiac issues
...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 04-10-2024, 07:54 PM
Replies: 50
Views: 2,825
Posted By classhandicapper
Right, I was just trying to make the point that...

Right, I was just trying to make the point that once you know the winner of the exacta, that's one less horse in the race that can come in 2nd.

Poindexter made the point better. There are fewer...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 04-10-2024, 02:23 PM
Replies: 50
Views: 2,825
Posted By classhandicapper
This is how I am visualizing it. Imagine 2...

This is how I am visualizing it.

Imagine 2 fields of 8.

The double is 1 out of 8 parlayed to 1 out of 8.

The exacta is kind of 1/8 (top horse) parlayed to 1 out of 7 (for 2nd) where the...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 04-10-2024, 12:52 PM
Replies: 50
Views: 2,825
Posted By classhandicapper
I agree. I tend to favor exactas because I...

I agree.

I tend to favor exactas because I have so few opinions where I feel confident I am getting good value, there are even fewer opportunities for me to hook value to value horizontally to...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 04-10-2024, 08:53 AM
Replies: 50
Views: 2,825
Posted By classhandicapper
In theory the double should pay more. The...

In theory the double should pay more.

The double is win to win.

The exacta can be thought of similar as win to win "if the real winner wasn't in the race". So it's also a kind of parlay but...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-09-2024, 12:50 PM
Replies: 35
Views: 2,183
Posted By classhandicapper
Upgrading that race was kind of obvious before...

Upgrading that race was kind of obvious before the Bluegrass and Wood. It was a strong prep race, at least by this year's standards.
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-09-2024, 10:13 AM
Replies: 35
Views: 2,183
Posted By classhandicapper
I've been a huge Sierra Leone fan, but he has a...

I've been a huge Sierra Leone fan, but he has a habit of bearing in during the stretch run. That could get him into trouble in a huge field. I don't know if it's greenness or his stride. The left...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 04-09-2024, 09:15 AM
Replies: 11
Views: 568
Posted By classhandicapper
Why do they need a points system for the Oaks? ...

Why do they need a points system for the Oaks?

It's not like they are getting consistent overflow demand like the Derby. If they should start getting demand getting closer to 20, then maybe it...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 04-08-2024, 05:34 PM
Replies: 50
Views: 2,825
Posted By classhandicapper
I'm in 100% agreement about real benefit taking...

I'm in 100% agreement about real benefit taking time.

I'm just throwing a little cold water on the celebration because I'm not sure we know what it this spike means for the track and industry...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 04-08-2024, 05:27 PM
Replies: 30
Views: 1,906
Posted By classhandicapper
I find that those high win% type horses do better...

I find that those high win% type horses do better on turf than dirt. That's at least what my regression tests have shown. That's most likely because final time figures are both less accurate on turf...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 04-08-2024, 05:12 PM
Replies: 30
Views: 1,906
Posted By classhandicapper
In almost all cases I agree with your thinking. ...

In almost all cases I agree with your thinking.

I'd way rather have the more consistent horse unless the horse showing recent improvement has faster back figures and I have good reason to think...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 04-08-2024, 11:57 AM
Replies: 50
Views: 2,825
Posted By classhandicapper
From a personal perspective, I love the lower...

From a personal perspective, I love the lower take double, but unfortunately for us it's not just about the players.

It's about the tracks and industry.

We have to demonstrate more than just...
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