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Search took 0.03 seconds. Search: Posts Made By: osophy_junkie
Forum: Advance Deposit Wagering (ADW) 04-08-2015, 09:01 PM
Replies: 8
Views: 2,577
Posted By osophy_junkie
Cool Offshore ADW

I don't have enough capital and connections to go through an american ADW. So I was thinking of going through an offshore ADW. Are their any offshore ADWs that co-mingle into american pools? I plan...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 03-08-2015, 04:33 PM
Replies: 5
Views: 1,070
Posted By osophy_junkie
Cool Thanks for the replys! Anyone know what nko...

Thanks for the replys!

Anyone know what nko in the distance behind column means?
Forum: General Racing Discussion 03-08-2015, 12:51 AM
Replies: 5
Views: 1,070
Posted By osophy_junkie
Thumbs up weight

And also what's the weight measured in, kilograms, stones maybe?

I see 11 - 6 and have no idea what that is
Forum: General Racing Discussion 03-07-2015, 12:38 PM
Replies: 5
Views: 1,070
Posted By osophy_junkie
Talking attheraces.com

Does anyone know what measurement attheraces.com uses for distance behind? I'm going to assume it's 1 length, but maybe it's feet or meters? I just want to make sure I've got the conversion correct...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 03-05-2015, 09:57 PM
Replies: 12
Views: 1,956
Posted By osophy_junkie
Is this the correct URL? It doesn't seem to work.

Is this the correct URL? It doesn't seem to work.
Forum: General Racing Discussion 03-04-2015, 05:38 PM
Replies: 12
Views: 1,956
Posted By osophy_junkie
Cool Pedigree Figures

I'm working on writing some pedigree stats now. I've found a list on a bris brochure that I'm implementing and I have the Dosage book by Steve Roman and will implement that, I have also ordered...
Forum: Handicapper's Corner 02-27-2015, 08:28 AM
Replies: 112
Views: 9,117
Posted By osophy_junkie
Cool Can you share the reason you were told?

Can you share the reason you were told?
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-27-2015, 08:23 AM
Replies: 19
Views: 3,379
Posted By osophy_junkie
I personally don't use coefficients, and doubt...

I personally don't use coefficients, and doubt many syndicates do currently. But the idea's are the same.

There really isn't a way. The public odds represent what you don't know. The more you...
Forum: Handicapper's Corner 02-24-2015, 03:51 PM
Replies: 63
Views: 7,371
Posted By osophy_junkie
:ThmbUp:

:ThmbUp:
Forum: Handicapper's Corner 02-24-2015, 11:35 AM
Replies: 63
Views: 7,371
Posted By osophy_junkie
Talking ROI data

And here is ROI data for betting the top figure for 2010-2014:

Just winners for variants.
Split just Winner(AQU) - 84.159%
Split just Winner(SA) - 84.936%
Split just Winner(GP) - 86.047%
...
Forum: Handicapper's Corner 02-24-2015, 11:20 AM
Replies: 112
Views: 9,117
Posted By osophy_junkie
Not all tracks offer historical data for trakus,...

Not all tracks offer historical data for trakus, which is really a bummer. Although I do, I don't _want_ to have to run my computer 24/7 and schedule daily data scrapping.
Forum: Handicapper's Corner 02-23-2015, 08:07 PM
Replies: 112
Views: 9,117
Posted By osophy_junkie
Any hints how you go about doing that, if you do?...

Any hints how you go about doing that, if you do? I've read through every message with Variant in the title and have seen you talk about the theory in the past, but don't remember seeing much on the...
Forum: Handicapper's Corner 02-23-2015, 12:55 PM
Replies: 63
Views: 7,371
Posted By osophy_junkie
I did some tests that I can't seem to find right...

I did some tests that I can't seem to find right now, but they didn't show much of an improvement when measuring the sum of entries that ranked in the top 3 and also had the highest 3 highest speed...
Forum: Handicapper's Corner 02-23-2015, 12:46 PM
Replies: 63
Views: 7,371
Posted By osophy_junkie
I was currently making speed figures, but would...

I was currently making speed figures, but would like to augment these to account for pace. So I guess I'll be making performance figures with this in mind.
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-22-2015, 05:03 AM
Replies: 39
Views: 4,191
Posted By osophy_junkie
Post Reading the Charts

Thanks for the links! I've been looking for a free source of international race charts for the past couple of months.

And now that I look at them I have a couple of questions. What's a chase and...
Forum: Handicapper's Corner 02-21-2015, 09:20 PM
Replies: 63
Views: 7,371
Posted By osophy_junkie
Cool Projected Final Times for use in making Variants

I was recently remaking my Speed Figures and in the process of doing so I needed to create daily variants. I am currently just taking the final time minus the class par. And splitting this up by...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 01-21-2015, 06:30 PM
Replies: 10
Views: 1,345
Posted By osophy_junkie
Cool Missing Class

What do you do when the class the horse is in either doesn't have pars or has too few races? The class latter doesn't appear to be linear by par time, so you can't really just pick the next claimg...
Forum: Handicapper's Corner 01-20-2015, 09:05 PM
Replies: 4
Views: 1,220
Posted By osophy_junkie
Cool Wouldn't it stand to reason on streaks of only 7...

Wouldn't it stand to reason on streaks of only 7 starts, it would be most probable to return the mean (eg. lose).
Forum: General Racing Discussion 01-09-2015, 09:48 PM
Replies: 1
Views: 569
Posted By osophy_junkie
Cool historical stakes races

Where can I get the results for stakes races from the past 100 or so years?
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 01-01-2015, 10:31 PM
Replies: 0
Views: 789
Posted By osophy_junkie
age on speed

How does age effect speed in your system?

I recently did some tests and came to the conclusion that the change of days in a horses age did not effect it's next race out. Which seems kind of odd,...
Forum: Handicapper's Corner 01-01-2015, 06:39 PM
Replies: 42
Views: 4,067
Posted By osophy_junkie
I don't unserstand. What are you saying to do...

I don't unserstand. What are you saying to do here?
Forum: Handicapper's Corner 01-01-2015, 11:21 AM
Replies: 42
Views: 4,067
Posted By osophy_junkie
I'm not sure how a Bayesian approach would look....

I'm not sure how a Bayesian approach would look. I personally use conditional logistic regression, I've been told that multinational should work too.

Ed
Forum: Handicapper's Corner 12-31-2014, 10:22 PM
Replies: 42
Views: 4,067
Posted By osophy_junkie
What is the final number you get from regression?...

What is the final number you get from regression? If it's a probability you can use it, plus the final odds in conditional logit to get a new probability. This is what I do.

Ed
Forum: Handicapper's Corner 12-31-2014, 12:05 PM
Replies: 42
Views: 4,067
Posted By osophy_junkie
Post Try integrating the "final known odds" into your...

Try integrating the "final known odds" into your regresssion alrgorithem. This is the documented way of doing it.
Forum: Handicapper's Corner 12-11-2014, 05:53 PM
Replies: 293
Views: 36,864
Posted By osophy_junkie
Smile beyer style speed figures

This is what I got using a beyer style sped figure:
normal pars 8
cluster 13


So using beyer style instead of quirin style has some effect.
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