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Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-24-2005, 12:49 PM
Replies: 73
Views: 18,066
Posted By Geekyguy
Benter's advantage is that he's got the "stones"...

Benter's advantage is that he's got the "stones" to risk large amount of money profitably. Very few players are willing to do this.
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-21-2005, 07:16 PM
Replies: 73
Views: 18,066
Posted By Geekyguy
The best exercise for isolating your...

The best exercise for isolating your bread-and-butter angles is to play on low money for a day, or "tap out" your day's bankroll on a single race or a single bet.

Whatever you gravitate to is...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-20-2005, 03:30 AM
Replies: 47
Views: 4,830
Posted By Geekyguy
Like it or not, Pinnacle is a sportsbook first...

Like it or not, Pinnacle is a sportsbook first and foremost. Days like yesterday are particularly bad because they're taking football and basketball while the races are going on, something like...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-19-2005, 07:41 AM
Replies: 47
Views: 4,830
Posted By Geekyguy
As long as they aren't booting net winners (and...

As long as they aren't booting net winners (and they'd have no reason to), this won't be a problem. Even if they limit the rebates, they are still there for the average player, and one can keep an...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-13-2005, 12:21 PM
Replies: 9
Views: 1,493
Posted By Geekyguy
Not only are there many pros here, but they tone...

Not only are there many pros here, but they tone down what they share to keep the value, so you're really only seeing the surface. A guy who says "I use pace-adjusted Beyers" often means "I paid for...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-07-2005, 12:42 PM
Replies: 64
Views: 5,293
Posted By Geekyguy
Smarty Jones was not overhyped at all: his...

Smarty Jones was not overhyped at all: his trainer just chose the path of least resistance to the Derby. In the Belmont, he put away two solid G1 animals before finally surrendering to Birdstone. ...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-07-2005, 05:29 AM
Replies: 15
Views: 2,033
Posted By Geekyguy
This is correct: the rebate players simply demand...

This is correct: the rebate players simply demand a lower takeout in the form of lower overhead, while the idiots keep the lights on at the track and the OTB parlors. Bookies used to undercut OTB...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-06-2005, 11:57 PM
Replies: 64
Views: 5,293
Posted By Geekyguy
Another way of explaining it would be to use the...

Another way of explaining it would be to use the example from professional sports in the playoffs, where a team from a weak division or conference has problems against a team from a stronger division...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-06-2005, 01:57 AM
Replies: 64
Views: 5,293
Posted By Geekyguy
I think the difference is that in higher-class...

I think the difference is that in higher-class races, the fields are deeper and provide more competition for the same figure. Smarty Jones was better than every horse in his Belmont, but not the...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-05-2005, 03:01 AM
Replies: 29
Views: 2,730
Posted By Geekyguy
I'd say keep playing the method until it gives...

I'd say keep playing the method until it gives you a reason not to.

Whatever you do, DO NOT SELL THE METHOD as that will kill its value.
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-04-2005, 10:30 PM
Replies: 64
Views: 5,293
Posted By Geekyguy
He beat Egg Head, who is as good as any other...

He beat Egg Head, who is as good as any other sprinter I've seen this year (if you can get over that he's from Delaware). I think Lost In The Fog's problem was that he had never faced a field as...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-03-2005, 07:43 AM
Replies: 17
Views: 1,494
Posted By Geekyguy
Anyone sharp enough to hit IRS stuff that often...

Anyone sharp enough to hit IRS stuff that often is either a compulsive gambler playing too many combinations, or someone so sharp that the last thing they have to worry about is paying the government...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-03-2005, 07:40 AM
Replies: 10
Views: 1,090
Posted By Geekyguy
Btw, in the 1999 Belmont Stakes, Vision And Verse...

Btw, in the 1999 Belmont Stakes, Vision And Verse (trained by Mott) was 20-1 in the program and 54-1 on the board No other horse was bet down or "outcast." I figured Mott at 12F in a G1 stakes at...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-03-2005, 07:38 AM
Replies: 10
Views: 1,090
Posted By Geekyguy
I did just that about a decade ago, for a full...

I did just that about a decade ago, for a full month. I forced myself to make picks based on tote-board watching and more or less was able to break even. Now I incorporate it into my betting and...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-03-2005, 07:35 AM
Replies: 10
Views: 1,090
Posted By Geekyguy
The 3-2 shot may have "fired" but gave up; we...

The 3-2 shot may have "fired" but gave up; we don't know. The other longshot busted up my exacta (I had the 24-1 over three horses), and pace scenarios are impossible to predict, but that was hardly...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-03-2005, 07:29 AM
Replies: 11
Views: 1,077
Posted By Geekyguy
Bad luck is part of the game and why they pay so...

Bad luck is part of the game and why they pay so much when they win. I don't sweat the short run and actually had a very good month so far.

I can show you many horses who come home in sub-:23...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-03-2005, 06:43 AM
Replies: 57
Views: 3,121
Posted By Geekyguy
Does Saratoga have a heating system?

Does Saratoga have a heating system?
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-02-2005, 11:15 PM
Replies: 17
Views: 1,494
Posted By Geekyguy
So you have the OTBs making 9.4 percent on every...

So you have the OTBs making 9.4 percent on every wager, sucking it out of the pool just as with the rebate players, but they aren't "ruining the game."

What they really need to do is lower the...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-02-2005, 11:04 PM
Replies: 11
Views: 1,077
Posted By Geekyguy
Turf And Pace Explained

Following is a summary of how pace handicapping works on the turf:

1. If the early fractions are fast (e.g., 22.3, 45.1 for a mile race), the 78-1 shot who is in front by a dozen will quit on the...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-02-2005, 09:23 PM
Replies: 57
Views: 3,121
Posted By Geekyguy
Lake has never done that well in The Claiming...

Lake has never done that well in The Claiming Crown, however. I think this type of race wouldn't favor the top trainers because their stock would be used up long before their eligibility expires. A...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-02-2005, 09:19 PM
Replies: 17
Views: 1,494
Posted By Geekyguy
When you don't get money back on your bets, you...

When you don't get money back on your bets, you are "giving" it to your OTB for the privilege of being able to play there.

If everyone chased rebates, the OTBs would be out of business tomorrow,...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-02-2005, 08:08 AM
Replies: 10
Views: 1,090
Posted By Geekyguy
6-1 in the program, 24-1 on the board...wins!!

I saw the thread with the guy who hit the 8-1 progam horse who paid 50-1. Another one came flying down the stretch to win a turf race at the Meadowlands yesterday.

These "outcasts" win fairly...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-02-2005, 08:05 AM
Replies: 28
Views: 1,946
Posted By Geekyguy
Playing exotics, one doesn't have this problem. ...

Playing exotics, one doesn't have this problem. I've also found with late money that horses often pay their pre-move odds in the exotic slots.

Still, I see too many cases where the prices drop...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-02-2005, 07:24 AM
Replies: 17
Views: 1,494
Posted By Geekyguy
Two things happen with rebates: 1. Winning...

Two things happen with rebates:

1. Winning players use them to suck even more money out of the pools; and

2. Losing players churn them instead of the OTB using them to stay in business.
...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-01-2005, 11:25 PM
Replies: 57
Views: 3,121
Posted By Geekyguy
Well, I remember when War Emblem was going for...

Well, I remember when War Emblem was going for the Triple Crown at Belmont and they said that he was good marketing for the sport.

I thought Sarava's $142.00 win payoff was a pretty damn good...
Showing results 1 to 25 of 60

 
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