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Search took 0.05 seconds. Search: Posts Made By: Aussieplayer
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-25-2004, 01:30 AM
Replies: 26
Views: 2,117
Posted By Aussieplayer
ljb & JackS: Finding that your top choice...

ljb & JackS:

Finding that your top choice wins (say) 25% and then deciding that as long as you take more than 3/1 is totally fraught with danger, and a way to the poorhouse (in my experience). ...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-24-2004, 12:07 AM
Replies: 26
Views: 2,117
Posted By Aussieplayer
This is part of what I wrote someone in a PM. ...

This is part of what I wrote someone in a PM. Maybe it'll help?

"Bear in mind, that the actual table idea is what I wanted to portray. The actual values of the increments should probably be...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-23-2004, 11:55 PM
Replies: 50
Views: 6,817
Posted By Aussieplayer
The fellow (author/scientist) I mentioned reckons...

The fellow (author/scientist) I mentioned reckons that the real strength in physicality handicapping really lies in elimination, and not selection.

Cheers
AP
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-18-2004, 11:52 PM
Replies: 50
Views: 6,817
Posted By Aussieplayer
The author of the book I mentioned somewhere in...

The author of the book I mentioned somewhere in the Handicapping Library claimed that one could make a (modest) ROI simply by eliminating favs with poor physicality & betting the rest.

Not to...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-18-2004, 11:45 PM
Replies: 3
Views: 886
Posted By Aussieplayer
I just posted a nifty odds-making method in...

I just posted a nifty odds-making method in another thread, the "value of a length" thread.

Cheers
AP
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-17-2004, 12:08 AM
Replies: 79
Views: 7,024
Posted By Aussieplayer
Justmissed, What about a group of horses...

Justmissed,

What about a group of horses that are profitable? As Rick mentioned for his own approach: top raters that aren't fav. etc.

If they're profitable, are you not betting overlays...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-15-2004, 10:13 PM
Replies: 79
Views: 7,024
Posted By Aussieplayer
Don Scott (our version of Beyer, 'cept he won a...

Don Scott (our version of Beyer, 'cept he won a lot more than 50 grand at the track), did the following:

he had a rating method where the value of each rating increment was 1/3rd length. The...
Forum: Handicapping Library 02-11-2004, 08:34 PM
Replies: 17
Views: 7,941
Posted By Aussieplayer
Lol, how are ya Tom? Good to see so many...

Lol, how are ya Tom? Good to see so many familiar names about!

Lots of new ones I see as well!

Racing is as challenging as ever! Seriously though - I put myself out to spell (or layoff as you...
Forum: Handicapping Library 02-11-2004, 07:16 PM
Replies: 17
Views: 7,941
Posted By Aussieplayer
.....I doubt it. Sent the book half way across...

.....I doubt it. Sent the book half way across the world to me - for free - paid for the postage too.

Cheers
AP
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 12-07-2003, 07:21 PM
Replies: 11
Views: 1,697
Posted By Aussieplayer
There are other useful ways of determining race...

There are other useful ways of determining race shapes - put the thinking cap on & you'll come up with many!

It's a useful exercise.

Cheers
AP
Forum: Handicapping Software 12-03-2003, 05:27 PM
Replies: 72
Views: 10,580
Posted By Aussieplayer
Hi all, CJ said: [QUOTE] ...

Hi all,

CJ said:

[QUOTE]


............I tend to go with that sentiment. Pace probably is really important, but nothing says you HAVE to have any consideration of pace.

It's funny, but...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-26-2003, 10:43 PM
Replies: 31
Views: 2,516
Posted By Aussieplayer
Question: Have I read things correctly? ...

Question:

Have I read things correctly?

If you want a db of (say) all races run in the US for the past (say) 4 or 5 years (or 10 years!), you cannot purchase this???

Weird!!!

AP
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-23-2003, 11:21 PM
Replies: 31
Views: 2,788
Posted By Aussieplayer
Hey Kentucky, Yeah, I guess it's a bit of...

Hey Kentucky,

Yeah, I guess it's a bit of wishful thinking that things could change :(

However, at least in this day & age we are not restricted to play (well, sort of anyway).

eg. A guy I...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-21-2003, 09:47 PM
Replies: 31
Views: 2,788
Posted By Aussieplayer
Absolutely DISGUSTING!!!! I cannot imagine...

Absolutely DISGUSTING!!!!

I cannot imagine ever paying taxes on gambling winnings, be it racing, or even (if I was lucky enough - or actually bought a ticket, lol) - the lotto.

Why? If I make...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-21-2003, 09:28 PM
Replies: 78
Views: 7,936
Posted By Aussieplayer
Tom, You wrote: "But I dont care if it could...

Tom,

You wrote: "But I dont care if it could pick 90% winners, I am not going to spend 8 hours doing 2 race cards."

No problemo. Pay me to do it. I'll need some "good faith" money upfront of...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-12-2003, 06:43 PM
Replies: 30
Views: 3,377
Posted By Aussieplayer
Dave, Have you ever tested your methods...

Dave,

Have you ever tested your methods against a bunch of random sessions etc. How did it pan out vs. flat staking?
Cheers
AP
Forum: General Racing Discussion 02-12-2003, 06:41 PM
Replies: 30
Views: 3,377
Posted By Aussieplayer
Some of you guys might be interested in a staking...

Some of you guys might be interested in a staking software that "learns as you go."
It is based on target betting, over a non-forced session, (ie. you have a target, but you don't MAKE the races...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-12-2003, 06:21 PM
Replies: 65
Views: 8,122
Posted By Aussieplayer
Hey guys, Come back 2 days later & the...

Hey guys,

Come back 2 days later & the thread just gets away from you, lol!!

GT - thanks for clarifying. It was your earlier example that had me confused where you said to adjust DOWN - must...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-11-2003, 12:31 AM
Replies: 65
Views: 8,122
Posted By Aussieplayer
....GT, I understand. I think. You seem to...

....GT,
I understand. I think. You seem to be saying that I should go a step further, and actually change my line. In your example, when my line has 7/2 and public says 6/1, my line should be...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-10-2003, 11:49 PM
Replies: 65
Views: 8,122
Posted By Aussieplayer
Hi GT, You said, "But you might find that...

Hi GT,

You said, "But you might find that certain odds ranges require a greater margin than others due to bias in your personal line, and the blending process helps smooth that out and you can...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-10-2003, 11:15 PM
Replies: 16
Views: 1,717
Posted By Aussieplayer
Example....

Today (Tues), I've got 4 possibles. So, nearly the average. They are at 3.17pm, 4.15pm, 5.02pm & 5.37pm
As I type this I've got 7 more minutes to the first of those.

It's looking like a pass....
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-10-2003, 10:33 PM
Replies: 28
Views: 2,125
Posted By Aussieplayer
Tanda said: My point is that PrPwr is a solid...

Tanda said:
My point is that PrPwr is a solid rating system. But there are many of those. The key is how you use a rating system, not which one you use (assuming that your rating system is...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-10-2003, 10:17 PM
Replies: 65
Views: 8,122
Posted By Aussieplayer
Hey guys, Good thread. In the past (and...

Hey guys,

Good thread. In the past (and over more than just the one rating method), I have tested various analyis processes (re: taking into account the public's odds) that are perhaps a little...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-10-2003, 08:09 PM
Replies: 16
Views: 1,717
Posted By Aussieplayer
At the moment: A few minutes in the morning to...

At the moment: A few minutes in the morning to determine "possible plays," (average of 5), which then have to (unfortunately) be checked against the tote at race time to make an (average) of 1 play...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 02-06-2003, 11:41 PM
Replies: 17
Views: 1,480
Posted By Aussieplayer
Hurrikane, On the one hand you say 80% in...

Hurrikane,

On the one hand you say 80% in the top 4 is the minimum that you should accept.
And then on the other hand you say this is all meaningless without ROI.

I'm not trying to split...
Showing results 1 to 25 of 196
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