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Search took 0.08 seconds. Search: Posts Made By: sbcaris
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-06-2021, 08:08 AM
Replies: 18
Views: 2,490
Posted By sbcaris
medina spirit has stamina

medina spirit has Nijinskl C/S, Graustark C/S and PRINCEQUILLO I/S AS HIS 6TH, 7TH AND 8th damsire.

He also has dominant classic dosage profile. I didn't bet him because he showed no stamina in...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 05-02-2021, 09:30 AM
Replies: 18
Views: 2,490
Posted By sbcaris
frontrunners continue to capture the derby

Wire to wire. It never used to be like that in the Derby but the new trend continues on a lightning fast track where the 4 horses turning for home never changed position in the stretch run.

Off...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-29-2021, 02:54 PM
Replies: 51
Views: 12,094
Posted By sbcaris
large heart

The only thing I was interested in was if Buckpasser was in the X passing position and not if the large heart trait was being transmitted. The only thing proven to date is that no single gene on the...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-29-2021, 02:43 PM
Replies: 51
Views: 12,094
Posted By sbcaris
based on facts

my book Analyzing the Triple Crown is free for anyone interested. just type my name stanley caris and type Analyzing the Triple Crown and you can download it for free. You will find the facts about...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-29-2021, 10:43 AM
Replies: 51
Views: 12,094
Posted By sbcaris
late pace not good

rock your world ran fast early and slow late. his brisket late pace figure is a bad 91.

hot rod charlie has a late pace figure of 90. they could win but statistically you need a 95 or better in...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-29-2021, 09:51 AM
Replies: 26
Views: 2,886
Posted By sbcaris
not ideal

how come after pletcher drew post 1 for KNOWN AGENDA and was asked about his thoughts on that post said that its NOT IDEAL but we will have to work out a trip.
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-28-2021, 04:14 PM
Replies: 51
Views: 12,094
Posted By sbcaris
lose ground

vinnie: hot rod charlie did not lose ground, he led the entire trip but fails to qualify because the la derby is Not a big 5 prep

midnight bourbon also ran in the la derby which is NOT a big 5...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-28-2021, 08:20 AM
Replies: 26
Views: 2,886
Posted By sbcaris
1 post is bad

In the 5th race take a look at the head on view at churchill downs tuesday. they left the 1 post empty for a reason. IT IS STILL THE WORST POSITION, ESPECIALLY FOR A CLOSER. IF all 20 still run,...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-28-2021, 07:41 AM
Replies: 12
Views: 1,071
Posted By sbcaris
qualifiers

Vinnie: Long time no see. ONLY two of the BUCKPASSERS qualify on my final fraction time in a big 5 prep . They are Known Agenda and Highly Motivated
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-27-2021, 12:50 PM
Replies: 26
Views: 2,886
Posted By sbcaris
Known Agenda and the dreaded 1 post

known Agenda gets the worst post and is all but eliminated from the win chance.

I would scratch him and run in the preakness.
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-26-2021, 01:24 PM
Replies: 12
Views: 1,071
Posted By sbcaris
buck x

it could be AP Indy or Tapit as the ones to carry the X line of buckpasser.
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-26-2021, 07:03 AM
Replies: 12
Views: 1,071
Posted By sbcaris
buck passe X

here are all the horses that carry buck passer in the X:

Like the King
Known agenda
Rock your world
medina spirit
mandaloun
highly motivated
soup and sandwich
dynamic one
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-26-2021, 06:36 AM
Replies: 12
Views: 1,071
Posted By sbcaris
buck passer , war admiral etc

As time passes the great horse, Buckpasser will be further and further back in pedigrees. My first angle included War Admiral in the X, then I found Buckpasser to work even better. Interestingly,...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-23-2021, 08:52 AM
Replies: 16
Views: 1,864
Posted By sbcaris
is there more speed in this derby?

Does this derby contain more speed than the last 8 Derbies?
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-19-2021, 02:14 PM
Replies: 3
Views: 613
Posted By sbcaris
speed plus variant

midnight bourbon also misses qualifying because he did not run in a big 5 prep
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-19-2021, 01:33 PM
Replies: 3
Views: 613
Posted By sbcaris
speed plus variant

The horses that qualify:

essential quality

highly motivated

midnight bourbon

"Those that just missed because they did not run in a big 5 prep are as follows;
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-19-2021, 11:19 AM
Replies: 3
Views: 613
Posted By sbcaris
speed plus variant

I have found that horses that get 103 or higher when the daily racing form speed rating is added to the track variant get an impact value of 3.00 if the horse also finished first or second in its...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-18-2021, 09:17 AM
Replies: 5
Views: 1,102
Posted By sbcaris
sloppy track

who gets the nod if the rains come on derby day? rock your world
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-15-2021, 09:43 AM
Replies: 37
Views: 3,186
Posted By sbcaris
ran sire line

THE RAN SIRE LINE SINCE 1969 HAS GENERATED AN ADDITIONAL 13 WINNERS.

THE TOTAL SINCE THE FIRST WINNER, MAJESTIC PRINCE, IS 25 WINNNERS OR CLOSE TO 50%.
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-15-2021, 09:36 AM
Replies: 37
Views: 3,186
Posted By sbcaris
ran sire line

THE RAN SIRE LINE HAS HAD 12 DERBY WINNERS IN THE LAST 20 YEARS. THATS 60%

2019----country house
2017----always dreaming
2015----american pharaoh
2012----ill have another
2010----super saver...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-15-2021, 08:39 AM
Replies: 37
Views: 3,186
Posted By sbcaris
RAN SIRE LINE

THE FOLLOWING CARRY THE RAN SIRE LINE AND ARE P0SSIBLE DERBY RUNNER

LIKE THE KING
HELIUM
KNOWN AGENDA
ROCK YOUR WORLD
CONCERT TOUR
ROMBAUER
DREAM SHAKE
HOZIER
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-15-2021, 08:33 AM
Replies: 37
Views: 3,186
Posted By sbcaris
RAN sire line

I thought this might be of help. The following horses carry the RAN SIRE LINE:
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-08-2021, 06:22 PM
Replies: 17
Views: 2,068
Posted By sbcaris
impact value of 6.00

Using CJs stats over the 8 year period where the point system was in place CJ found that 7 of the 8 winners were undefeated as 3 year olds. The undefeated horses as a group comprised 14.5% of the...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-08-2021, 11:23 AM
Replies: 17
Views: 2,068
Posted By sbcaris
point system creates favorites

My error. I used lifetime win percentages for that research and for some reason thought I was using only 3 year old racing. The impact value will probably be higher if i used only 3 year old races...
Forum: **TRIPLE CROWN TRAIL** 04-08-2021, 05:22 AM
Replies: 17
Views: 2,068
Posted By sbcaris
60 percent wins current year

Here is an interesting trend statistic. In the last 10 years 6 Derby winners won at least 60 percent of their races as a 3 year old. These horses comprised approx 23% of the starters for an average...
Showing results 1 to 25 of 422
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