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Search: Posts Made By: Half Smoke
Forum: General Racing Discussion 01-10-2022, 07:56 AM
Replies: 1,087
Views: 113,128
Posted By Half Smoke
___________ Baffert's Mucho Gusto and...

___________


Baffert's Mucho Gusto and Charlatan have been invited to the Pegasus Cup

IMO the event is going to be diminished by Baffert's presence

so much focus on him and his violations...
Forum: Off Topic - Sports 01-09-2022, 05:44 PM
Replies: 6
Views: 697
Posted By Half Smoke
__________ the road dogs who got 4 points...

__________


the road dogs who got 4 points or fewer for this season - 2021/2022 - had a very good year

I used the most common line from vegasinsider.com on the morning the day of the game

...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 01-09-2022, 08:35 AM
Replies: 1,087
Views: 113,128
Posted By Half Smoke
really? according to Equibase (linked)...

really?


according to Equibase (linked) his horses have appeared in 7 races in 2022 and they've won 4 of them and finished 2nd in 2 of the other 3


a 57% win % and an 86% in the money %
Forum: General Racing Discussion 01-04-2022, 11:33 AM
Replies: 10
Views: 585
Posted By Half Smoke
help me understand Derby faves

______________


according to my google search KY Derby faves have won 56 of 146 times or 38.3%

I believe overall in racing the % is about 33%

this factoid about the Derby seems really...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 01-02-2022, 09:25 AM
Replies: 78
Views: 4,572
Posted By Half Smoke
a customer has every right, legal and otherwise...

a customer has every right, legal and otherwise to attempt to influence a business towards a direction he sees as being positive

.
if horseplayers acted in concert by uniting into large groups...
Forum: General Racing Discussion 01-02-2022, 08:56 AM
Replies: 78
Views: 4,572
Posted By Half Smoke
____________ a little bit off the...

____________



a little bit off the subject but anyway


there are many who bet racing here and elsewhere who have excellent analytical abilities
Forum: General Racing Discussion 01-02-2022, 05:58 AM
Replies: 0
Views: 418
Posted By Half Smoke
new movie re racing getting rave reviews

_________


the title is "Jockey"
.

the lead actor, Clifton Collins, worked as a grunt at the track to get the respect of riders involved in the moviemaking

....
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 12-31-2021, 07:24 PM
Replies: 43
Views: 2,891
Posted By Half Smoke
from my experience I can say that usually the...

from my experience I can say that usually the reason a horse won is that he arrived at the finish line before the other horses

I hope that was helpful__________________________(-:\


.
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 12-31-2021, 10:01 AM
Replies: 6
Views: 765
Posted By Half Smoke
_____________ just my personal opinion or...

_____________


just my personal opinion or preference - but anyway

I much prefer betting exactas when there is a cold fave going off at around 5/2

payouts should be pretty decent even if...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 12-18-2021, 05:23 AM
Replies: 7
Views: 606
Posted By Half Smoke
okay, thanks for the answer - I pretty much...

okay, thanks for the answer - I pretty much presumed that but wanted to make sure

but isn't the info that you can get from the tote or from your ADW on exacta probables often wrong and many times...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 12-17-2021, 05:39 PM
Replies: 7
Views: 606
Posted By Half Smoke
how did you choose to make these bets and these...

how did you choose to make these bets and these bet sizes?

why play the 5 and 6 over the 8 instead of over the 1 or 2 for example?

what is so special about the #8 horse?

why no action at all...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 12-16-2021, 10:25 AM
Replies: 19
Views: 1,013
Posted By Half Smoke
__________ also, I'm assuming these plays...

__________


also, I'm assuming these plays are based on your handicapping
not just on the win odds

correct?


.
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 12-16-2021, 10:00 AM
Replies: 19
Views: 1,013
Posted By Half Smoke
sorry, but I can't understand based on your...

sorry, but I can't understand based on your earlier explanation exactly what your bets are

it's a complete mystery to me

I know it would take some of your time, but it would be very helpful, if...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 12-06-2021, 07:29 AM
Replies: 8
Views: 1,665
Posted By Half Smoke
interesting post potential edge from other forum

__________


Tampa 11/24 race 4 the fave Super Edgar - 2.90/1 - broke thru the gate and wasn't scratched - he reloaded (chart linked)

poster loaded up big and bet against him somewhere and...
Forum: Handicapper's Corner 11-26-2021, 05:40 PM
Replies: 43
Views: 4,564
Posted By Half Smoke
__________ this is an unscientific...

__________


this is an unscientific observation but anyway

years ago I had this idea that shots would be more likely to win in certain types of races

specifically I was looking at cheap...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-22-2021, 06:08 PM
Replies: 32
Views: 3,494
Posted By Half Smoke
............. Formula.............. ...

.............

Formula..............


You first logged on here with your data crunches in August of 2011

That’s more than 10 years ago

What’s your ETA.........would you say?
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-22-2021, 08:58 AM
Replies: 32
Views: 3,494
Posted By Half Smoke
............ It’s such an easy game...

............



It’s such an easy game but IIRC you posted that you don’t bet

.....hunh............????


.
Forum: Off Topic - General 11-10-2021, 07:57 AM
Replies: 168
Views: 11,098
Posted By Half Smoke
the link provides a nice view of the homes of...

the link provides a nice view of the homes of some miserable people on the French Riviera

most refer to France as a socialist country

I wish I was that miserable__________________(-:\


....
Forum: Off Topic - General 11-10-2021, 07:12 AM
Replies: 168
Views: 11,098
Posted By Half Smoke
some George Carlin's . “Think of how...

some George Carlin's


.
“Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.”

"If it’s true that our species is alone in the universe, then I’d have...
Forum: Off Topic - General 11-09-2021, 06:16 AM
Replies: 168
Views: 11,098
Posted By Half Smoke
___________ from the TV show "The...

___________


from the TV show "The Office"_________


.
you're so weak you need to be on steroids just to watch baseball
Forum: Off Topic - General 11-09-2021, 06:07 AM
Replies: 1,650
Views: 301,878
Posted By Half Smoke
__________ movie is from...

__________


movie is from '89_________perfect for this forum

the mutual teller is really good at math
.

.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VosZzVlqxTg
Forum: General Racing Discussion 11-04-2021, 06:20 AM
Replies: 30
Views: 2,810
Posted By Half Smoke
Baffert standing tall at Breeders Cup

_________


running 8 horses

more scrutiny of him but basically his CA chums are again letting him skate yet again
.

.
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-02-2021, 01:14 PM
Replies: 79
Views: 6,245
Posted By Half Smoke
why would you do a complicated thing like that...

why would you do a complicated thing like that when the win odds as displayed by the tote already have considered the takeout?


.
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-02-2021, 11:09 AM
Replies: 79
Views: 6,245
Posted By Half Smoke
I don't get what he's doing at all why would...

I don't get what he's doing at all

why would you mess with takeout when the tote has already considered takeout?

although the take on exactas is maybe 2 - 6% more than the take on win bets -...
Forum: General Handicapping Discussion 11-02-2021, 06:20 AM
Replies: 79
Views: 6,245
Posted By Half Smoke
___________ the linked chart...

___________





the linked chart from Brisnet comes to a much different conclusion

according to Brisnet 2/1 over 3/1 has a fair payout of $16 for a $ 2 bet which makes it $ 8.00 for a $...
Showing results 1 to 25 of 470

 
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